[This is one of the finalists in the SMTM Mysteries Contest, by a reader writing under the pseudonym TripleTaco. We’ll be posting about one of these a week until we have gotten through all the finalists. At the end, we’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked.]
I’ve always thought it was really weird that Amish kids mostly don’t get autism, and I have found other people’s explanations unsatisfying. For most of America, the autism rate is about 1 in 44, but among the Amish, it’s more like 1 in 271. Like obesity, autism is extremely common in developed countries, and largely did not exist (or was not recognized) before modernity (diagnoses have been rising dramatically). So, what if some environmental factor of our modern lives is poisoning our children’s very minds?
It’s not because of vaccines
It appears that the correlation is mostly used by anti-vaxxers as evidence that children shouldn’t be vaccinated, which makes it data-non-grata; (we can’t talk about this data lest we reinforce their conspiracy theories).
It’s not because of vaccines, but what if there’s some other aspect of modern living that contributes heavily to autism? There are many other things that the Amish abstain from that could be contributing.
It’s not (just) kids watching TV
An easy culprit would be babies watching too much TV. Indeed, there’s strong evidence that needs to be considered here. An increase in cable TV subscriptions in a neighborhood is directly correlated to an increase in autism. The same article also points out that places with more precipitation get more autism (perhaps because people stay inside to watch tv?)
But wait, while research on this topic does support the theory that screen time is bad for babies’ social development, the effect size is not nearly large enough to explain the severe autism that many children get. No study I’ve seen directly correlates baby screen time with actual autism diagnosis (although few would argue that heavy screen usage is good for babies). The TV explanation is missing something.
It’s not (just) genetics
Some have pointed out that the Amish are genetically isolated, and perhaps they have good genes for avoiding autism. However, no genetic explanation can explain the dramatic rise in autism rates in other populations.
Are there any clues from treatment?
Often diseases are treated with therapies that reflect their causes. Bacterial infections are treated with antibiotics, for instance; kill the bacteria, and you solve the problem. Autism is generally treated with language and behavioral therapy. The child has extended one-on-one time with a therapist where they practice building the social skills they are lacking. If this is truly the best treatment (at least for now), does that tell us anything about possible causes?
Teaser
There’s more I’d like to say and link to, but I can’t really go much further without getting into my own theories on this topic. I do have a pet theory that I think better fits the observed data than other explanations. I have in fact found one other individual (a therapist who treats autism) espousing my exact theory, although it doesn’t appear to have gotten much traction. For now, I’ll just leave this mystery without suggesting a theory as requested.
SLIME MOLD TIME MOLD 
Why would you do this to my afternoon? Such a theory tease.
Also, FWIW, the Snopes rebuttal is very weak. The data on Amish vaccinations they cite is too limited/binary to actually counter the theory. I would be very interested to know the correlation by doses across nations.
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Well, “I can’t really go much further without getting into my own theories on this topic”: and when/where you’ll publish this theory? Sometimes the world just need a sparkle from a unproved theory to get things on the correct way.
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Not a fan of calling it “poisoning” or linking to a page endorsing ABA as the first “treatment” listed.
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The most obvious explanation is that children in Amish communities are not screened for autism, and therefore many cases are not identified. I’m surprised this isn’t addressed one way or another.
Also, I agree with the above commenter – implying that people with autism have “poisoned minds” is incredibly offensive and unnecessary.
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Let’s not call autistic people’s minds poisoned, shall we?
The Amish avoid doctors as much as possible. Surely they are not getting screened like other populations. This reminds of the answer to the question “What do communities with very, very long-lived people all have in common?” Bad record keeping.
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I just moved to an area with a growing Amish community and many of my neighbors are Amish. I suspect what you are getting at (and I think you are likely on to something) is that one of the primary aspects of Amish community life is…well, community. Face-to-face interaction and treating each individual as an integral part of a whole system, where everyone is working toward a common goal with well-defined and meaningful roles for each person, defines Amish life and could be seen in and of itself as a treatment for autism.
Also, off topic, but pretty disappointed that so many commenters can’t get past the “poisoning minds” phrase and yet seem perfectly happy to misunderstand/misrepresent Amish beliefs without questioning it! Afaik, Amish people do go to doctors, they just don’t use health insurance.
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Oh, this is an easy one. Virtually every agrarian, pre-industrial society has hit on the same solution for people who display autistic traits: they work as farmers. What makes this especially fascinating is that virtually every agrarian, pre-industrial society has also hit on the same solution for people who display allistic traits: they work as farmers, too.
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I’m reminded of a certain ex-Amish person on TikTok who was asked why the Amish don’t usually get ADHD. His answer was, basically, that if anyone was inattentive, they would get blamed for it and receive corporal punishment instead of medical treatment. I suspect the same is true for people with symptoms of mild or moderate autism.
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It would be useful to look at autism ‘levels’ in both populations too. Coz some cursory research shows me that in the general population, 1 in 142 people are level 3 ASD i.e. have intellectual disability and can be considered ‘low functioning’. Maybe the Amish are not diagnosing the people with high functioning ASD.
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The most obvious explanation to me seems to be lack of diagnoses. It’s kind of annoying that this isn’t even addressed. Some of the comments point to how this may be cultural, too. Autistic traits may be more acceptable in the structure of this society.
If this mystery is further investigated in the future, it would be beneficial to have someone autistic (and probably someone Amish, as well) on the team [see annoyed comments above on potentially offensive stereotyping of autistics and Amish].
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My theory would be that the average age of an Amish mother is lower than amongst the general population, since they get married early. Older mothers are more likely to have embryos with aneuploidy
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Uh…. autism levels are NOT “extremely common in developed countries.” I have no idea where you got this so-called fact. The rate of autism in Japan is several orders of magnitude lower than in the United States, and I think we can all agree that Japan is a developed country.
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If it’s treatable with only language and therapy then I am going to blame suburbs and their lack of socialisation and community, with TV only making it worse.
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I agree with the comment above that farm labour may be key here.
I’m reminded of the famous autistic lady who invented cow squeezing machines to help them be less stressed in the abattoir- she always felt more at home around cows than people. In the usual Western culture, we get “oh that’s David, he always struggled at school, a lot of outbursts.” On the farm you get “oh that’s David, he’s the pig guy. Loves pigs.”
With so called lower functioning autistic traits again farm work helps hugely- lots of opportunity for sensory feedback, daily routine which is very important, everyone has a place to be and rules to follow, fresh air and space, and not too much intellectual demand for specific jobs. It would be very easy to hide a large autistic population in a farming community. I would love to know where the numbers come from.
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