Links for April 2024

“I would like to thank the Idaho Potato Commission for assembling a categorized database of 1,700 potato recipes from around the world. I consult it frequently and it has become my favorite potato resource.” And here it is.

“They even have a chatbot that does medical consultations”

While Lucas M. Miller was serving in Congress, he proposed a Constitutional amendment to change the country’s name to “the United States of the Earth” because “it is possible for this republic to grow through the admission of new states…until every nation on earth has become part of it.”

In 1995 New Mexico’s state senate proposed an amendment that would have required psychologists to dress up as wizards when providing expert testimony on a defendant’s competency. Our friend Tim says, “They were cowards to not adopt it.”

When a psychologist or psychiatrist testifies during a defendant’s competency hearing, the psychologist or psychiatrist shall wear a cone-shaped hat that is not less than two feet tall. The surface of the hat shall be imprinted with stars and lightning bolts. Additionally, a psychologist or psychiatrist shall be required to don a white beard that is not less than 18 inches in length and shall punctuate crucial elements of his testimony by stabbing the air with a wand. Whenever a psychologist or psychiatrist provides expert testimony regarding a defendant’s competency, the bailiff shall contemporaneously dim the courtroom lights and administer two strikes to a Chinese gong.

@sonikudzu on twitter goes after the claim that most of the nutrition in a potato is in its skin.

In the context of horse racing, a milkshake is a combination administered to a horse, pre-race, intended to cause metabolic alkalosis of the blood. In theory this is a performance enhancer. Claims:

Nobel Laureate in Medicine Barry Marshall, who showed that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori plays a major role in causing many peptic ulcers, had this experience early in his career:  

In 1982 Marshall and Warren obtained funding for one year of research. The first 30 out of 100 samples showed no support for their hypothesis. However, it was discovered that the lab technicians had been throwing out the cultures after two days. This was standard practice for throat swabs where other organisms in the mouth rendered cultures unusable after two days. Due to other hospital work, the lab technicians did not have time to immediately throw out the 31st test on the second day, and so it stayed from Thursday through to the following Monday. In that sample, they discovered the presence of H. pylori. They later found out that H. pylori grows more slowly than the conventional two days required by other mucosal bacteria, and that stomach cultures were not contaminated by other organisms.

In 1983 they submitted their findings thus far to the Gastroenterological Society of Australia, but the reviewers turned their paper down, rating it in the bottom 10% of those they received that year.

Friend of the blog Dynomight writes a review of the theory that seed oils are the root cause of obesity and/or other western diseases. He concludes: 

A weak version of seed oil theory is that seed oils are highly processed, so why not use cold-pressed olive oil instead? If that’s the theory, fine. In fact, this is mostly what I do myself. I figure it might be useless, but it’s unlikely to be harmful, and olive oil is delicious.

But seed oil theorists mostly seem to push a much stronger theory: We know that seed oils are the cause of Western disease.

I’ll just be honest. I think this view is completely indefensible. I feel embarrassed when I see people promoting it. You’re sure? How? I don’t see any way to get to this conclusion other than heavily filtering the evidence—ignoring the flaws in everything that supports a predetermined view while scrambling to find flaws in everything that contradicts it.

Philosophical Transactions: JV on Explorations of Isotonic Brine Space

Previous Philosophical Transactions:

JV is a reader and intrepid high-dimensional pioneer who wrote us with some thoughts and comments on the exploration of brinespace. His email is reproduced below, lightly edited for clarity and to help preserve anonymity, but otherwise the same as we received it.


Hello Slimes

I’m a long time reader of your blog and greatly enjoyed your recent post wrt. explorations of brine space. I’ve engaged in somewhat similar experiments due to some health problems (IBS-D is a likely diagnosis but I’m still hoping for something a bit more actionable). Particularly, I had some temporary success about a year ago experimenting with potassium chloride which greatly improved my wellbeing for about two weeks but then, unfortunately, it stopped working. My experiment was similar to Krinn’s in terms of dosage but with the crucial difference that I did not add sugar to the solution. I now understand, thanks to several of your recent blogs and references therein, why this may have caused my experiment to fail.

I’ve decided to give potassium chloride another go, using Krinn’s experiment as a point of departure. In considering the optimal experimental strategy for searching brine space, I conducted a brief mathematical exercise that I think may interest you as well. My brief experiment can be replicated in the attached python script. 

I should probably mention somewhere, that I’m a complete ignoramus wrt. chemistry, so this is a purely mathematical exercise with all the attendant risks of making stupid chemistry 101-level conceptual mistakes.

Anyway, I jumped right in and tried to replicate Krinn’s solution. I don’t have Gatorade easily available, so I used normal lemonade and added roughly two teaspoons of potassium chloride to 1 liter of water along with the normal amount of lemonade (1:4 mixing ratio) and a teaspoon of salt. In short order, I discovered two things: ingesting the solution 1) made me feel better and greatly reduced my appetite (yay!) and 2) made several subsequent visits to the bathroom urgently necessary (boo!). Reading a bit more about the formulation of ORS explained the latter phenomenon: I had inadvertently made a hypertonic solution, meaning that solution drew water into the intestines due to the osmotic gradient. Apparently, this amount of water was such that it could not be reabsorbed. Thus, I arrived at the conclusion that I should make future solutions isotonic (i.e. eliminate the osmotic gradient) or, like the more recent formulation of ORS, slightly hypotonic to facilitate absorption of the mineral salts. 

You may have encountered the formulation of the reduced osmolarity ORS with an slightly hypotonic osmolarity of 245 mOsm/l relative to the previous formation with isotonic osmolarity of 311 mOsm/l (https://www.rehydrate.org/ors/low-osmolarity-ors.htm). It makes sense, to me personally, that the optimal tonicity of any ingested solution should be somewhere in this interval. After all, hypertonic solutions have the major disadvantage that the ingested mineral salts are rapidly excreted, rendering them useless. And so, I assume that any experimental brines should be, at the very least, isotonic but, probably, somewhat hypotonic to facilitate easy absorption. If this assumption is correct, it would have the major advantage, that it significantly reduces the amount of brine space that we need to investigate as the subset of ideally hypotonic brine space (say 245 mOsm/l) is much smaller.

First, I created a script to calculate the osmolarity of Krinn’s solution. In the attached script, the amounts correspond to the ingredients in blue gatorade which result in a calculated osmolarity of 245.6 mOsm/l. I assume it is no coincidence that this closely mirrors the osmolarity of the recent formulation of ORS and, in fact, googling the osmolarity of gatorade, I encountered several criticism of the osmolarity of Gatorade from 10-15 years ago, so I assume the formulation was changed in response.

Of course, this means that adding two heaping teaspoons (slightly less as Krinn was adding them to 20 oz bottles) creates a severely hypertonic solution, which explains my experience with my attempt at Krinn’s solution. This is in no way a criticism of Krinn’s post and, in particular, I note that she writes that she “sips” the solution during the day, which probably explains why she didn’t have any issues. For myself, however, I think it’s better idea to make a hypotonic solution so that I can drink as much as I want.

Second, I created a script to identify the optimally hypotonic subset of brine space in a solution of sugar, salt and potassium chloride. That is, I assume a certain target osmolarity (245 mOsm/l) and amount of sugar (20 g/l) and find the combinations of salt and potassium chloride that results in the optimally hypotonic solution. The result is illustrated below, showing me that I should use quite a bit less of both minerals, close to perhaps 1 teaspoon of potassium chloride and maybe 1/5 teaspoon of salt per liter.

Third, I created a script to do the same for three minerals, using calcium chloride as an example but you could use any mineral salt, really.

Based on these experiments, I conclude that the assumption of the optimally hypotonic solution leads to a subset of brine space that is a linear plane, which should drastically limit the combinations to investigate.

Anyway, I hope you find this interesting and/or useful. At any rate, this is the approach I will take to exploring brine space. If I make any further progress, I’ll let you know.

If you wish, you may freely use or reference this material and the attached script.

Best wishes,

JV

Links for March 2024

potassium-weight-loss.org — Alex Chernavsky conducts a N=1 study of potassium supplementation taking ~8000 mg of potassium a day for two months, loses about 4.2 lbs: 

We Used To Eat A Lot More Without Becoming Obese by ​​Sven Schnieders:

The mainstream theory regarding the obesity crisis is that people consume excessive calories and move insufficiently – “calories in, calories out.” Alternative nutritional perspectives, such as Keto and Veganism, challenge this narrative only to some extent. Keto proponents attribute obesity primarily to excessive carbohydrate intake, while vegan advocates point to excessive meat consumption. Despite divergences on the impact of specific food groups, there is a near-universal consensus on the overconsumption of sugar in modern diets.

A problem with all of these theories is that historically we used to eat a lot more – including a lot more carbs or sugar.

Unraveling the Mystery of San Francisco 7-Eleven Stores Selling Onigiri With the Mayor’s Face on Them. This was not a real program by the city of San Francisco — in fact, it was a project by Danielle Baskin to manifest 7-11 onigiri in America. Excellent scheme, we hope it works.

Victorians loved redwood trees and decided to plant them all over the UK. In fact, they planted so many that there are now more redwoods in the UK than in America. “The Victorians were so impressed that they brought seeds and seedlings from the US in such large numbers that there are now approximately 500,000 in Britain … [while] California has about 80,000.” Like most trees, redwoods start out small. But they do not end up small. At their full potential they would be about three times taller than any other species in the UK, and they have recently started to outgrow the surrounding native trees

Seeds of Science — Doing the Science Ourselves

Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable:

There is one possible answer to the question “If the old model is broken, what will work in its place?” The answer is: Nothing will work, but everything might. Now is the time for experiments, lots and lots of experiments, each of which will seem as minor at launch as craigslist did, as Wikipedia did, as octavo volumes did.

Society doesn’t need newspapers. What we need is journalism. For a century, the imperatives to strengthen journalism and to strengthen newspapers have been so tightly wound as to be indistinguishable. That’s been a fine accident to have, but when that accident stops, as it is stopping before our eyes, we’re going to need lots of other ways to strengthen journalism instead. 

When we shift our attention from ‘save newspapers’ to ‘save society’, the imperative changes from ‘preserve the current institutions’ to ‘do whatever works.’ And what works today isn’t the same as what used to work.

(Warning: Spiders) @abcdentminded: “Found this guy on youtube who intentionally gets bitten by black widows and brown recluses to prove that spiders are innocent and all necrotic wounds are just misdiagnoses or infections. He holds them against his skin to get several-second bites that deliver >x3 the normal venom load. I honestly believe him at this point.” Wild if true; obvious alternative explanations include 1) he’s built up some kind of an immunity, or 2) people’s bodies are different enough that some people can shrug off venomous spider bites and other people fucking die. The channel is Jack’s World of Wildlife, and is obviously not for the faint of heart.

Why are Americans getting shorter? Very strange, and holds true even among native born white Americans who are not seniors. Also notable, this is yet another thing that seems to influence women more than men:

Blogger @anabology starts longestlevers.com, a collection of “static protocols for dynamic lives”. See for example the page on the honey diet.

I wanted a diet where I could eat as much as I possibly could, as a fairly lean individual already, and still lose weight. This is my attempt at that. It seemed to work — eating 1 lb of honey + 1/2 pound of dates a day, I lost 10 lbs in a month or so, and my bloodwork just got better.

Benefits I experienced: – I ate as much as I could and still lost weight. – My cortisol and estrogen both went down. My DHEA went up. Blood biomarkers generally looked better. – Never had so few migraines. – Good constant energy and mental clarity. 

Drawbacks: – Honey was not very tasty. If I did it again, I’d diversify with more simple sugary fruits. – Near the end, I was committed on the “1 lb of honey a day” thing, and some days I had a lower appetite due to lack of sleep from work. I still forced myself to eat all the honey, but if I did it again, I would never force myself to eat when I’m not hungry. Just not worth it from the insulin perspective.

There is way too much serendipity — “It is therefore a fact of the world that virtually all the popular synthetic sweeteners were discovered accidentally by chemists randomly eating their research topic.”

Ars Technica — Surprising link found between niacin and risk of heart attack and stroke

Object permanence in newborn chicks is robust against opposing evidence:

Newborn animals have advanced perceptual skills at birth, but the nature of this initial knowledge is unknown. Is initial knowledge flexible, continuously adapting to the statistics of experience? Or can initial knowledge be rigid and robust to change, even in the face of opposing evidence? We address this question through controlled-rearing experiments on newborn chicks. First, we reared chicks in an impoverished virtual world, where objects never occluded one another, and found that chicks still succeed on object permanence tasks. Second, we reared chicks in a virtual world in which objects teleported from one location to another while out of view: an unnatural event that violates the continuity of object motion. Despite seeing thousands of these violations of object permanence, and not a single non-violation, the chicks behaved as if object permanence were true, exhibiting the same behavior as chicks reared with natural object permanence events. We conclude that object permanence develops prenatally and is robust to change from opposing evidence.

Philosophical Transactions: Leo on Swamp Taters

Previous Philosophical Transactions:

From deep within the metabolic mire, “Leo” sent us a transmission on a potato riff: SWAMP TATERS. Potatoes as high fat, high carbs, low protein. The exchange is reproduced below, lightly edited for clarity.


First Exchange

Leo:

Hey y’all:

A friend of mine and I have been doing an unsanctioned potato-riff (didn’t get around to signing up, didn’t get a good initial weigh-in). Also I can’t remember what day we started but it was probably around January 8. 

I’m down 10+ pounds (from somewhere around 240 to 227; used different scales before I started going to a nearby pharmacy every day or so to use the big ‘health station’) and he’s down probably 20 to 375 (he doesn’t have a scale big enough, is also going to the pharmacy), but was 390+. 

The riff is potatoes + saturated fat (mostly butter, some coconut oil), with calories from the fat no more than maybe 40%. We’ve been strict even about cheat days — only having protein refeeds using bone broth powder for the BCAA restriction as in Brad Marshall’s emergence diet, with a tiny bit of cheese. (The refeed meal is potatoes au gratin boulangeres, with broth in the potatoes and pepper-jack on top). So far a success — we’re both visibly thinner and feeling good. 

A couple of notes:

  • I seem to lose -more- weight after refeed meals. If this keeps up, I’ll experiment with adding bone broth every day. 
  • I ate a bag of potato chips one day, and then fried up a bunch of potato chips in coconut oil the next day, then went up 4 pounds next weigh-in. Possibly just noise, but have religiously avoided both since.
  • He hasn’t eliminated alcohol during this trial, and is still making progress. 

Oh and to make it explicit — we’ll be continuing with the potatoes until we reach our goal weights, and our data for the second month will be better than the first.

SMTM:

So good to hear from you! This is wonderful news.

We’re very interested in this observation about refeeds. We’ve wondered for a while if there might be some kind of second fuel that is the limiting factor, to whatever is causing the weight loss from potatoes. If there were, that would maybe explain why half-tato sometimes works, but often doesn’t, and why some people have so much more success with the potato diet than others.

We like the idea of adding bone broth every day for a week, but then maybe consider following up with a week off, followed by a week adding it back in or something, like an ABA model. If that shows support for bone broth making a difference, maybe folks can riff from there.

We can also imagine that bone broth might have an impact once per week but not the same if done daily. In this case, alternating weeks would also be helpful — you’d see a big weight drop on the first few days of a bone broth week and then less effect after that. 

Leo:

Good thoughts. let’s see:

  • On the refeeds:
    1. The motivation behind adding the bone broth was diet adherence: I’m a lifelong lifter, and my (very large) co-experimenter is a now-crippled former athlete, so we both have a history eating a TON of protein. I implemented the refeed protocol in response to him reporting a tendency to cave late at night and eat cheese sometimes, which matched a certain interior discomfort I had been experiencing. Quite possibly just psychological, but we’ve been maintaining adherence better/easier since implementing them.
    2. My understanding of Brad Marshall’s bone broth (in his emergence diet) is to get enough protein without any of the obesogenic BCAAs. I helped a friend out yesterday in the kitchen but the timing was off — by the time my potatoes were done everyone else was eating burritos, and I ended up eating several spoonfuls of cooked hamburger. Weight went up a pound or so this morning and I don’t believe that’s an accident. 
  • You’re right about A:B testing. I’ll buy some cream today (I tend not to keep it on hand because it’s too easy to overserve yourself adding it to beverages) and try making the au gratin for a week with no broth and no cheese (the cheese was a confounder, anyway). A recipe I’ve invented for the purposes of this diet is a low-protein au gratin dauphinoise that involves making the ‘crust’ on the top (gratin means crust) out of potato flakes mixed with cream. It works as well for the crustiness without the casein. What I expect is that this will have no effect on weight loss in either direction, assuming we control for cheating.
  • Comments on palatability:
    1. Fries defeat the satiating nature of potatoes. Maybe the hot oil and the thin cut allows the heat to more easily destroy the protease inhibitors in potatoes, but i’d have to see the interior temp of potatoes cooked different ways accurately compared to even fully guess this is the case. What I do notice is that even oven-‘fried’ potatoes, if I do them just right, become a food I can eat a ton of without noticing whether or not I’m still actually hungry.
    2. The cheeseless au gratin + colcannon appear the best currently-demonstrated goldilocks option for palatability vs calories. If bone broth clears further trials I’d say that collagen-broth potato chowder and au gratin boulangeres (broth instead of cream) would be the best. Colcannon (mashed potatoes with minimal vegetables in it, traditionally cabbage) requires a lot of butter or cream for appropriate texture.

SMTM:

Great, the ABA designs should tell us a lot! Testing the bone broth is a good starting point. You might also at some point test some of the hypotheses about causes. For example, your results so far are consistent with the BCAA restriction hypothesis, but not very specific evidence for it.

That hypothesis suggests that you should be able to add anything that doesn’t contain BCAAs to this diet without any negative effect, so you could try adding in non-BCAA foods one at a time or something. You could also do an ABA design where you add BCAA powder to your meals directly, to (hopefully) avoid confounders. Hamburger contains BCAAs but it contains a lot of other things too (including lithium, as far as we can tell), it’s suggestive but not a clean test of the hypothesis. 

The most interesting test from a scientific standpoint will be the one where we think there’s a chance one of the conditions might stop the weight loss — see our post about biting the bullet if you haven’t already. From a practical standpoint it’s annoying to interrupt your weight loss, but will be the best sign that we’re getting close to finding the “switch” (or one of the switches at least).

Looking forward to hearing how it goes! 🙂 

Leo:

Ah, yes! I hadn’t read your N=1 series but I agree entirely. 

I’d from the beginning been planning on running this in an ABBB[…]BBBA form, in the sense that I started out making food that was at least 50% potato by calorie, with the rest being saturated fat and cabbage/onions/garlic (sometimes in the form of sauerkraut that I make), with the intention of increasing the tater until I started losing weight. That’s the B. When I reach my goal weight (which barring some miracle will be far sooner than my friend will, given he’s got 150 pounds and negative-6 inches on me, though he’s built like a bull) I’d just add back beef to my own portions (but not his) until I stopped losing weight. 

I’d been thinking of beef as the most obvious source of isoleucine, but you make a good point about the lithium. I have in the past bought bulk BCAA powder and empty capsules and filled them myself (eight years ago on a stint of strictly lifting in the morning despite intermittent fasting on a 20:4 pattern — in retrospect the whole thing was laughable but that’s what I get for not biting the bullet), so I might just buy a big bottle of BCAA tablets and see if I can stop the weight loss with them instead of beef. 

I can already say that adding cabbage (cooked or fermented) appears to have no effects on weight loss, nor does eating massive amounts of capsaicin.

Another thing: I’m experiencing something approaching normal satiety for perhaps the first time in my life. I’ve been doing intermittent fasting for a long time just because once I start eating I don’t stop, and once I eat I crash. So usually I go all day on decaf coffee with butter in it, then eat 4500 kcal of e.g. greasy beef tacos on corn tortillas fried in butter, then become dead to the world. I was never able to lift, barely able to hike after eating. 

That’s all changed. I can eat a bunch of potatoes and lift, or even wait a couple of hours and do sprints or burpees. My IBS is much better, my testosterone levels seem more consistent over the whole day (judging by steady libido and no maudlin period in the evening), and have been sleeping through the night better (less ‘maintenance’ insomnia). I’m a convert already — potato is life.

Second Exchange

Leo: 

Brethren:

Apologies for the long delay, and for this not being as robust a run as I’d intended. I’ve had a lot going on. Only got 3.5 weeks of good weigh-ins. Started a week earlier at probably 240-2, but not on a good scale.

First, the dates with the (good scale) weights:

1/25 – 238
1/26 – 238
1/27 – 236
1/28 – 232
1/29 – 233
1/30 – 233
1/31 – 231
2/1 – 233
2/2 – 231
2/3 – 227
2/4 – 227
2/5 – 226
2/6 – 227
2/7 – 225
2/8 – 225
2/9 – 224
2/10 – 225
2/11- 224
2/12- 223
2/13 – 223
2/14 – 224
2/15 – 224
2/16 – 224
2/17 – 221

We’ve added a graph for the visual learners :‎

My ‘riff’ was adding saturated fat. I wanted to test the metabolic ‘swamp’: high fat, high carbs, low protein. Other potato riffs had reported some dairy, some french fries, etc., but I wanted to control and report the fat intake. 

Protocol was ~7+ pounds of potatoes and at least one stick of butter (often 1.5). After initial weight loss demonstrated that this was working, I wanted to see if additional non-BCAA aminos (i.e. bone broth) would halt it. It didn’t, and I intended to flip that and add just BCAAs, but it’s a good thing I didn’t — I hit a plateau that lasted a week, and would surely have attributed the stoppage to the BCAAs if I’d been taking any. 

17 pounds down in four weeks is a good proof-of-concept of swamping, though. Note that I’m a big guy, and fairly metabolically healthy (I’m barely overweight at 221 and have a fair bit of lean body mass). I was doing this with a friend who was eating roughly equivalent food (slightly less fat) but not weighing in daily. He estimates he lost 15-20 pounds, but he has more LBM than I do. I’d love to see a chart of potato-diet weight loss by LBM rather than by total weight. 

Other consistent elements of the diet were the use of seasonings including MSG and KCl, copious hot sauce, and homemade sauerkraut. Both of us engaged in some kind of intermittent fasting daily as well — my fat intake daily was higher due to blending butter in my coffee in the morning, he just wasn’t eating before noon.

Other notes: a couple of women who ate the same swamp-tater diet a few days reported a reduction in weight of a few pounds, but this isn’t much of a sample. 

Towards the end of the plateau, I was wondering if my metabolism was slowing down (I felt tired and cold more often — this may have been illusory). A couple of days I experimented with stimulating FGF21 in the mornings by eating ~500 calories of table sugar in the am (and no butter). I felt amped while fasting all afternoon, but then ate just as much for supper as I would have eaten between dinner and supper. Probably gained a couple pounds but wasn’t weighing those days. 

I’ll start being more strict with the swamp tater protocol again soon. Overtrained a bit the last few days and hurt all over. Just trying not to psych myself into eating protein as recovery fuel. I should mix up some collagen right now.

Oh, here are my three most successful ‘swamp tater’ recipes. 

Colcannon: (peeled) red potatoes boiled barely enough, then whipped with butter or cream (roughly half stick per five pound bag). while potatoes are boiling, sautee a small head of cabbage, two or three onions, five cloves of garlic pressed (or granulated), and maybe a sliced jalapeno or two. (for sliced, use a mandolin, i’ll link below)

Au gratin: mandolined (peeled) russet potatoes, (optional) cream, hot water, and low-protein bullion (and garlic powder). liquid goes up slightly more than halfway in the taters. then a TINY bit of cheese on top, just barely enough to seal in moisture

Sheet-baked wedges: quartered (peeled) gold potatoes. heat them up by pouring boiling water over them in a bowl, stir until separated and warm, then drain. toss them in a wok with the following: heat a third of a stick of butter, whisk in some frank’s red-hot, a little bullion powder, and granulated garlic. toss them until they’re coated, then put onto baking sheets and cook at 400 until crispy. (do not make these smaller than quarters or they will become ‘fries’ and derange your satiety signaling).

Leo:

I’ve had a lot going on since shortly after I emailed you last, and have found it more or less impossible to stay on any diet. I’ve been largely eating potatoes, sometimes eating a little bread, often eating sugar. 

It feels a bit as I have after weight loss in the past, like what could imagine the experience of an embattled person with an outraged lipostat and part-empty WAT cells might be. Hard to say, beyond 1) fructose sure doesn’t work for me, next time I experiment with using sugar to upregulate my metabolism it’ll be pure glucose; 2) haven’t seemed to suffer as a result of not having more protein; 3) I can now cliff-young-shuffle in zone two (i.e. not even noticing my breathing) as long as I’m not going uphill. This hasn’t been the case for a while, might just be that I’ve been doing a lot of cardio and am 20 pounds lighter; 4) potatoes still taste fine. 

I’m interested in helping map brinespace and will be acquiring a big bucket of confectioner’s glucose as well as bulk supplement bags of magnesium and potassium (maybe in citrate form — KCl makes my teeth hurt). 

I’ll spare you any further reflections I have, as I’ve become a fanatic on linoleic acid (falling short of the colloquial definition of a fanatic: someone who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject). 

Thanks again for all your good work.

Second Potato Riffs Report


Eating a diet of nothing but potatoes (or almost nothing but potatoes) causes quick, effortless weight loss for many people. It’s not a matter of white-knuckling through a boring diet — people eat as much (potato) as they want, and at the end of a month of spuds they say things like, “I was quite surprised that I didn’t get tired of potatoes. I still love them, maybe even more so than usual?!” (Actual quote from a participant!) And some people lose a similar amount even when eating only 50% potato.

Why the hell does this happen? Well, there are many theories. To help get a sense of which theories are plausible, try to find some boundary conditions, or just more randomly explore the diet-space, we decided to run a Potato Diet Riff Trial. In this study, people volunteer to try different variations on the potato diet for at least one month and let us know how it goes. For example, they might eat nothing but potatoes and always cook their potatoes in olive oil. Or they might eat nothing but potatoes and leafy greens. Or they might eat nothing but potatoes and always eat their potatoes with ketchup. 

The hope is that this will help us figure out if there are other factors that slow, stop, or perhaps accelerate the rate of weight loss we saw on the full potato diet. This will get us closer to figuring out why potatoes cause weight loss in the first place, and might get us closer to curing obesity. We might also discover a new version of the diet that is easier to stick to or causes even more weight loss, or both. 

In the first two months after launching the riff trial, we heard back from ten riffs. Those results are described in the First Potato Riffs Report. Generally speaking, we learned that Potatoes + Dairy seems to work just fine, at least for some people, and we saw more evidence against the mono-diet and palatability hypotheses. 

Since then, we’ve heard back from seventeen new riffs. (Specifically, these are the riffs we heard back from between January 5th and March 18th, 2024.) We will describe these findings in a minute.

More people have their riffs underway or are planning to start soon, so there are more riff trial results in your future. And signups are still open if you want to get involved. But let’s see what we’ve learned so far. 

First we’ll review the overall results, and talk about our interpretation. Then, at the end we’ve included the actual riff proposals and reports from all seventeen participants in an appendix, if you want to read about them in more detail.

Unless otherwise indicated, weight loss numbers are over a period of about 28 days, comparable to the original Potato Diet Community Trial. 

Potatoes + Dairy

Potatoes + Dairy continues to be the most popular riff. Let’s get right to it.

82546219 ate Potatoes + Milk, specifically “because I wanted to prove whoever said ‘no dairy’ wrong”, and lost 19.8 lbs. 

(As before, all these plots have a span of 24 lbs on the y-axis so they can be compared directly.)

32223622 ate Potatoes + Dairy, always potatoes but “dairy … perhaps not every meal but when the mood strikes me!” Results: “Though I struggled to keep a long stretch without cheat days I do not attribute this to the diet itself, rather my work-life balance went to crap and I hardly had the wherewithal to prepare food. This is not typical and was just unfortunate timing for it to happen during this study. In any case, I am happy with the resulting ~5 lbs lost.” This person’s partner also tried the riff and while she did not feel comfortable recording her data, experienced a somewhat stronger effect (see the many interesting details in appendix).

84290728 ate Potato + Dairy, “mainly butter, soured cream, cream; some yoghurt, milk) + ocassional wine”. However, they felt very ill and had to stop after a couple of weeks, and they were not able to record any data. This is an important reminder that some people can’t stand eating this many potatoes, and naturally the potato diet does not work at all for them, even with dairy.

79886833 ate Potatoes + Yoghurt. The verdict? “I really enjoyed it.” See plot:  

37809513 ate Potatoes + “Butter (lots of it)”. A few interesting details here. This participant had previously tried an all-potato diet and wasn’t able to stick with it, but was able to make it through on this riff, though still found it a bit unpleasant. He mostly ate his potatoes steamed, which is notable. In the end he lost 5.3 lbs. 

Potatoes + Dairy + Others

Some people also tried versions of Potatoes + Dairy plus some other stuff, usually vegetables. 

90594710 said, “I’m planning to do the (understandably popular) potato+dairy diet for the first two weeks, and then add in leafy greens for the following two weeks, crossover study style.” This participant had previous success on the potato diet, and notes that while they did lose weight, there was “clearly lost less weight in this riff trial than in my original trial.”

81281674 ate Potatoes + Carrots + Dairy + some other foods, see the appendix for full detail. But safe to say, it was mostly potatoes. They lost 6 lbs in total.

10455414 was an interesting one: Potatoes + Dairy + “Three Sisters”. This participant explains, “I’d like to do the pure potato+dairy for two weeks to see what happens.  One cheat day per week.  Then add in corn.  If that seems to work, I’ll add in the other two of the three sisters: squash and beans.  I’m a member of the Cherokee Nation and think that ‘New World’ grains and veggies are better for you, and that the European additions like beef, chicken, wheat, etc. have screwed up our digestive systems.” He did lose some weight, but he had to deviate from his plan (“I never added the corn. I had some digestive issues so added broccoli, carrots, green beans, and cauliflower.”) and overall this protocol didn’t seem to cause much weight loss:

Potatoes + Protein(s)

Many people have been interested in getting more protein, or concerned about its absence, so we were happy to see several riffs testing the inclusion of various kinds of protein. 

12582676 ate Potatoes + Chicken + White Wine according to a defined protocol (see appendix). He experienced some swings in overall weight but no consistent weight loss, and had problems with energy. “As much as I tried to like this approach, I felt pretty low energy and this is probably not sustainable for me long-term … I need to have energy during the day, and somehow I didn’t end up feeling like I could sustain the required energy level.”

04194992 ate Potato + Red Meat + Dairy. Unfortunately they had to stop after only two weeks, from running out of willpower. This may not reflect on the riff, as this participant is unusually hungry. “I haven’t felt satiety since puberty, e.g. I always want to eat more (I had normal satiety reaction as a child, but this was suddenly lost). … To be honest, I don’t think I would’ve done better with just potato and dairy, I’m too hungry by nature. The amounts of potato and dairy I could consume if allowed to do so ad libitum, are large.”

37791108 ate Potato + Vegan Protein, “either a protein shake or a protein bar with each potato meal… My preferred protein powder is pea protein.” She reports: “I would consider the potato + plant protein a success. I lost 10 lbs/month on full tato but I suspect that I lost muscle during this as well. On potato riff I lost 6 lbs at day 24 but I did not feel like I lost muscle.” She says she might continue this riff so maybe we will hear from her again in a few months! :‎) 

41470698 ate Potatoes + Eggs, though he says, “in hindsight I believe it’s more fair to say I ate three things: Potatoes, Eggs and Olive Oil.” While there was some movement, he generally maintained his starting weight. 

Esoteric Riffs / Other

Finally, there were a few riffs that are hard to categorize or are on a theme all their own.

In the announcement post for this riff trial, we said:

If the whole food hypothesis is correct, eating these processed foods should make the potato diet much less effective. But if you lose weight on potatoes + gummy worms, that’s evidence against the whole foods hypothesis.

22293376 took us up on this with the Potatoes + Skittles riff. “I intend to follow this for a month and see what happens,” he said at the start. “My reasoning is that I believe adherence will be easier when allowing occasional treats, and because I don’t think that refined sugar has a moral valence.” He was right. In fact, “I was astonished at just how well it went.” The last few cheat days here were simply a poorly-timed vacation, but as you can see it didn’t really matter. Check it out:

32602136 went back to that standard potato diet, “plain potato diet, salt, black pepper, nothing else.” As you can see, there were some breaks, but there was also mostly steady weight loss while on the diet: 

75452454 tried a “Whole Foods” + Chocolate diet. This is not really a potato diet, though she did say about 10% of her diet each day was potatoes. In her report she says, “To be honest that was pretty bad, I couldn’t stick to the diet I’d planned for the life of me and definitely gained some weight. If it’s all good I’m going to try a different tact and see how that goes.”

She then did another riff, under the ID 75462073. This was a complex riff, “potatoes + other vegetables + fruit + limited proteins (soy, eggs, fish) + limited dairy (butter)”. She did lose some weight but overall describes the experience as “middling results!”

98821299 ate a diet of fried potatoes supplemented with other foods (e.g. breadrolls, pasta, rice, gingerbread, mayo, soy skyr, toast, etc.). This was more like a half-tato diet as far as we can tell. On this protocol they gained weight pretty consistently: 

Interpretation

Potatoes + Dairy continues to work for many people. However, it doesn’t work for everyone. Adding other ingredients, even fruits and vegetables, seems like it may be enough to interfere, though this is based on just a few cases. 

So far we don’t see a big winner on adding protein, though vegan protein does seem to do better. The egg riff and the meat riffs didn’t work, at least not for these people. This is pretty interesting given that meat and eggs are probably both high in lithium, though in such a small sample size there are many complicating factors. It would be good to see more protein riffs, especially riffs where someone starts off on the all-potato diet (to show that it works for them) and then adds a protein halfway through. We’d also like to see someone else try lentils, since they are high in protein and there was a big Potatoes + Lentils success in the first round of riffs.  

Potatoes + Skittles has a proof of concept. It works just fine, at least for this one participant. More evidence against “mono” and “palatability” as well as “potatoes are a whole food” explanations. We’d love to see more processed sweets riffs, maybe even a Potatoes + 1 Cup Sugar/Day riff!

We’re not entirely sure what to make of the other riffs.

So far it looks like dairy is compatible with the potato diet, or at least some forms of dairy. Vegan protein and sweets, or at least skittles, may be compatible as well. 

Going forward, we are most interested in the following kinds of riffs.

The first is a riff where you add just one thing to the potato diet, and show that you still lose weight. This shows that the new ingredient can be compatible with the potato diet, and if we get a couple of riffs like that, like we have with dairy, it suggests that the new ingredient is broadly compatible. We’d love to do a random walk towards the efficient frontier of fat loss, and maybe there is some super version of the potato diet that has yet to be discovered. (Perhaps Potatoes + 1 Cup Sugar/Day 👀)

The second is a riff that clearly shows that some ingredient stops the potato diet. To do this convincingly, you need to first show that you lose weight on the potato diet (since some people simply don’t), and that you stop losing weight when you add this new ingredient. The most interesting riffs going forward might start with 1 or 2 weeks of the classic potato diet as baseline, so it’s clear that the original version works for you. Then you can add one or two ingredients and see if they stop the effect. 

However, ruling foods in or out isn’t our main interest. What we really want is to make theoretical progress towards the question, why does the potato diet work (and sometimes not work)? Similarly, we would love to know why the half-tato diet works great for a few people but has a tiny effect on average. Maybe it has to do with what you’re eating in the other half?

We feel that the riffs so far have ruled out explanations like “the potato diet is a mono diet (and those work for some reason)”, “the potato diet is low-palatability, ignore the people who say how delicious it is”, and “on the potato diet you are eating nothing but whole foods.” However, if you disagree and feel that you can make a coherent case for why, we’d love to hear from you. Same if you have other explanations that might be tested by some new riff(s).

Sign Up Now

Signups for the potato riff trial are still open, and will probably stay open for all of 2024. You can read the original blog post here and sign up at the bottom. Feel free to replicate one of the riffs described above, try an extension, or invent your own riff. It’s up to you!

We’ll be back in a couple months when we have a new batch of riff trials big enough to report. For now, enjoy the full riff reports below.‎ ‎:‎) 


82546219 – Potatoes + Milk

Riff 

I plan to eat only potatoes and drink one cup of milk per day. CuoreDiVetro mixed dark chocolate with 250ml of milk in their trial. While it’s highly possible the dark chocolate is the active ingredient, I want to isolate the milk as a variable. Milk also contains Stearic Acid so it will be interesting to see whether it’s enough on its own. Europeans have been drinking milk far longer than they’ve been eating chocolate so I’m also curious about that component. Also by drinking milk I won’t have to supplement as much b12.

Report

Thanks for this! I’ve been following you from the very early days. I watched the original potato diet with much fascination and so it was great fun to be involved in this round. 

Here’s my report as such, it’s more just a rambling account on how I went rather than anything resembling scientific rigour. I’m quite interested in the science of it all but content to be a data point this time around.

I’m a pretty stubborn person. These kinds of extreme diets seem to suit me as I’m largely incapable of moderation or calorie restriction but very good and really firm rules. I’m also the designated waste disposal unit at any dinner table. A feature which is used by every friend group I’m in. I’m always the residual consumer who finishes all the food at the table. Partly because I hate to see anything go to waste, partly because I like it, and partly because that is the role I’ve come to assume in these friendship groups.

I chose potato and milk because I wanted to prove whoever said “no dairy” wrong. It just didn’t make sense to me why dairy would negate any effect the potatoes had. I liked the various theories about stearic acid and given milk is a good source of it thought that would put it to the test. I didn’t know that pretty much all your other participants were going to try something similar. I also very much thought the Riff trials were about isolating a single particular item. So when the first batch of Riff trials were released a few days into my experiment I was shocked to see others had done dairy as an entire category, what I would have done for a little cheese.

In saying that the first few weeks of the potato and milk diet were enjoyable. In a weird way there was a freedom in knowing I couldn’t eat anything else. I actually love both milk and potatoes and eating them exclusively almost wasn’t a challenge. At least not for the first few weeks. Experimenting with different ways of doing potatoes was fun and knowing I could eat as much as I wanted didn’t make it a chore. I’m a reasonably active person and my biggest worry was that this would effect my energy levels or performance in training, fears that were largely misguided. Towards the end I had one day where I felt incredibly faint after exercise but this may be more likely down to dehydration. I definitely had a bit of trouble with dehydration early in the diet, my urine was incredibly dark, I assume that’s from a drop in water content from what I was eating. I just doubled the amount of water I was drinking until I felt I was back to my baseline level of hydration.

I got many incredulous looks when telling people I was only eating potatoes. Most people were excited to see how it would pan out, many however didn’t believe it was “possible”. I deliberately kept it from my immediate family because they would think it was stupid. This was borne out when they did find out at the end of the 4th week and told me as much. Once I got known as the potato guy things also got easier because people stopped pushing me to eat other things or putting me through the Spanish Inquisition.

Probably the hardest part of the diet was prepping enough potatoes to take to work and for after work events. I play trivia several times a week, go to a weekly dinner at a friend’s place, and do a couple of group exercise things at night. Not having anything prepped meant it would be fries or packets of chips for dinner, both I grew quite sick of. In saying that I treated myself to some KFC chips on 3 different occasions. Something I normally reserve for when the State of Origin and NRL Grand Final are on.

The routine I came up with was to roast about 8kg of potatoes on the Sunday evening and box them up to be reheated through the week. I also boiled some potatoes on Sunday and boxed them, they could then be cut into discs and fried (my favourite format) or just eaten whole in a pinch. On top of this I tried hasselbacks, mash, baked, chips, and rosti’s. You’d think I would have eaten a lot of mash given my milk allowance but I actually wanted to drink the milk separately. Partly because it was often the highlight of my day, partly because I wanted to keep the variables as low as possible, and partly because I only actually felt like mash a couple of times. I originally planned to drink exactly 250ml of milk but that proved too difficult to measure when not in my own kitchen. So some days I was having about a litre and some days a small cup. All the milk I drank was full cream, I find skim too watery.

In terms of how many potatoes I ended up eating I wish I’d been able to count each one and weigh them all. I’d say my biggest day I had around 5kg of potatoes and my smallest around 200g. One thing I definitely think happened for me is I actually just ate less calories. As I could no longer provide clean-up service at dinners with other people, particularly my partner, that was a massive drop in consumption. I also have a big sweet tooth and the removal of refined sugars probably could have made me lose weight on its own. I definitely felt full more easily from straight potatoes. I guess I was also in diet mode and therefore was watching my consumption quite closely.

Towards the end of the diet I was quite keen for it to end. Mainly because I was really starting to crave fresh fruit and vegetables. I couldn’t stop thinking about fresh granny smith apples. I was also craving citrus. My partner started joking I had scurvy given how much I was talking about grapefruit, limes, and lemons. I did notice in the last two weeks I started to develop mouth ulcers, something that I don’t normally experience. By the end they were quite bad. I was taking a B multivitamin and as one of my friend’s loved to say the potato is nearly nutritionally complete so I’m not completely sure what the cause of that could have been. I wondered if it was a change in the bacteria in my mouth. I often thought about my gut biome and the starving little guys who feasted on my usually very diverse diet having only potatoes to eat.

Overall I lost 19.8 Pounds or 9kg. The first 10 pounds were easy and I knew I’d plateau for a bit and then I tend to have a few weeks lag before my body realises it’s a new regime and then it starts responding. So I wasn’t surprised when I lost the rest of the weight in that final week. I’m really happy with that and it’s a great start to the year. I should mention that going into this I’d had a huge Christmas. Every year I put on around 5kg over the Christmas holidays. That weight always seems to come off quite rapidly regardless of the approach because it’s just freshly put on and my sort of resting bitch weight seems to be 110kg. I also decided to do the potato diet about two weeks out and basically gave myself a hall pass to eat however poorly I wanted to in the lead-in. My main task was trying to chop through all the chocolate I got for Christmas so it wasn’t in the house come potato time. This meant I rolled up to the start line at 115kg and I lost that 5kg in the first week alone.

It was tempting on day 29 to keep going but I need at least a week to reset. It’s certainly nice to poop properly again. The social component of it was actually the hardest part, going out to dinner or to friend’s places and only being able to eat potatoes is not easy after the novelty wears off. It is however a good diet trick to have up my sleeve given I’m getting married at the end of the year and I’ve still got a bit to lose before I get to a weight I’d be comfortable waiting at the end of the aisle with.

Regards, 

82546219

32223622 – Potatoes + Dairy

Riff 

I will be having dairy with my potatoes. Perhaps not every meal but when the mood strikes me! I am open to suggestions however. I want to do potatoes for 28 days regardless, figure I could collect some data along the way :‎) 

I would like to start as soon as possible so please let me know!

Report

Hello,

I am writing to inform you that I have completed 28 days of the potato diet (and a final weigh-in on day 29). Overall, this diet was a great experience and while I don’t think I will be as strict going forward, I will definitely continue to eat more potatoes than I used to. Though I struggled to keep a long stretch without cheat days I do not attribute this to the diet itself, rather my work-life balance went to crap and I hardly had the wherewithal to prepare food. This is not typical and was just unfortunate timing for it to happen during this study. In any case, I am happy with the resulting ~5 lbs lost.

As for going “potato mode” like previous subjects have described, I do think I experienced it a little bit. Days where I was not hungry at all but had to remind myself to eat were common, especially in the beginning. As much as I love(d) cheese and sour cream, these honestly weren’t that enticing on this diet, so personally the added dairy component of this riff didn’t do much for me. Aside from butter, still love butter! And I am so happy living in Canada where I can get poutine just about anywhere. Feels more like a “meal” than just a large order of fries.

My partner, who decided to tag along for this diet (but absolutely hates data collection and diets so did not want to record anything for this study haha), definitely experienced more of the “potato mode” than I did. Any comfort foods she ate, she says the flavour was enhanced by a thousand. Despite that, she still had trouble finishing these cheat meals. Interestingly, she does not like her favourite chocolates that much anymore, as now the chocolate tastes off, and the fillings are too heavy (O’ Henry’s with reese’s peanut butter). I had the same thought, and I enjoyed these chocolates previously as well! Note that she didn’t know about this “effect” of the diet until she experienced it and I told her about it. She is 5’0″ and started at 156 lbs and ended at 149.

What’s most shocking to me in all this is how my perception of food has changed. I would actively avoid potatoes at most fast food places, instead opting to get, for example a chicken sandwich and nuggets. Because “common sense” was that potatoes have too many carbs and carbs = bad and protein = good.

84290728 – Potato + Dairy

Riff 

30 days, potato + diary (any – but mainly butter, soured cream, cream; some yoghurt, milk)+ocassional wine. 

Thinking: satiety effect due to proteinase inhibitors, v high in potatoes. I have previously noticed high satiety when eating significant amounts of whole wheat (also high in proteinase inhibitors) + soured cream. Expect normal protein levels to moderate the effect – hence low protein. High fat diary is in there to make the carbs palatable. Wine to maintain social life whilst doing it. 

Would like to run 30 days, whole wheat + diary and  30 days oats + diary, on same principle. 

Report

Just an update – I am afraid after trying various things over the past two weeks or so I have given up on eating potato + diary 😔.

Reason is feeling ill on it – eating anywhere over half kg potato per day would make me nauseous, extremely thirsty, mildly dizzy, within 2/3 hrs of eating. My digestion also went from perfect to diarrhea every couple of days and cramps. Looks like potatoes do not agree with me if eaten every day in substantial amounts. I don’t have any explanations for this – maybe my ancestors did not evolve to eat potato? 

I have tried having salty water & eating pickles as I thought electrolite imbalance may be the problem – this resulted in a slight improvement, but not substantial enough to make  it manageable. Peeling the potatoes did not help much either.

Have not put anything on spreadsheet as I basically ‘cheated’ every day due to potato ‘side effects’. On average I ate about 400-500g potato / day with some days of no potato due to feeling unwell. More than one meal of potato per day was not manageable for me.  When not eating potato, I have reverted to eating wholewheat. I have lost 2.6kg over 2 weeks, mostly within the first few days presumably water weight? My appetite was relatively low throughout, eating around 1600-1700kcal on average. 

What’s next? Probably doing this with wholewheat + diary instead of potato, as I know I can tolerate it?

79886833 – Potatoes + Yoghurt 

Riff

Potatos + cream/yoghurt / I think that’s a marvelous combination and I know I may not have enough of it thus it will help me to keep it up to the very end of the experiment.

Report

Hi!

I have finished my four weeks. My riff was only yoghurt eventually. I really enjoyed it. My sheet is ready for you.

I hope it will help you!

37809513 – Potatoes + Butter (lots of it)

Riff 

I’ll be doing potatoes + butter, for 4 weeks.

I’ve tried a potato diet before, and lasted about a week as I found pure potatoes too unpalatable, and too much work to peel all that everyday.

My rationale is that I’m pretty sold on the low PUFA + low BCAA idea, even though I didn’t lose weight on a rice-based high-carb low-fat low-protein supplemented with bone broth diet and all kind of pills before.

I wanted to do another trial, without supplement this time, just in case one of them sabotaged my weight loss, but I don’t feel comfortable doing that on mostly nutrient-devoid white rice. I also wanted to try high fat instead of low fat, as I experienced some increased inflammation during the low-fat diet, which I blame on the PUFA released from my body fat (the symptoms I experienced went away when I went PUFA-free, and made a come back on a low-fat diet).

Also, potatoes cooked in butter are delicious!

Report

Hi!

Just updating you about my potato riff trial! It went well! I lost 5.3 lbs, which isn’t as much as many others, but I’m still pretty happy with it given that I’ve tried and fail to lose weight with keto, the emergence diet and intermittent fasting this last year, without success.

So what did I do? My riff was potatoes + butter (lots of it).

My typical meal would be steamed potatoes, slathered with butter, seasoned with salt, pepper, and either dijon’s mustard or apple cider vinegar.

I tried other ways to cook potatoes for variety (over roasted, sauteed, …), but in the end the steamed ones were the ones that felt the most satisfying. I didn’t grow tired of them, and still found this meal delicious at the end of the trial. Mid-trial I started to add 15g of fire in a bottle’s stearic a day, melted in the butter, which I replaced with a couple squares of dark chocolate a day for the few last days. I also had some alcohol throughout the trial, mostly bailey’s and vodka mixers (technically, it’s dairyfat and potatoes, right?).

How did I feel? Honestly, not too great. I was a bit bloated at the beginning, but that faded quickly.  I tried eating baby potatoes with the skin once, which is a mistake I never did again as it gave me horrible bloating all night, and a bad aftertaste that’d come back anytime I thought about them. Mid-trial, I started to have some mild feeling of nausea and distaste for potatoes between meals, which weirdly disappeared completely once I started eating (potatoes…). I went from feeling like I was sick of potatoes while I had an empty stomach to loving them once the first bite was in my mouth. During the last week, I had a headache pretty much every day, and the thought of any protein-rich meal would be extremely appetizing, even things I don’t particularly like (like lentils). So when the 4 weeks were over, I broke the diet immediately.

In conclusion? There is definitely something magic about the potato diet, which isn’t impaired by butter. But based on my symptoms, and cravings on the last week, I think this version was too low in protein for me (after all, the butter is diluting the potatoes’ protein). Maybe in some other nutrients too. I might also be reactive to the solanine or other nightshade compound. I tried a full-potato diet before, and I lasted less than a week. The butter allowed me to do this one for the full 4 weeks.

I’m a bit tired of weird restrictive diets at this point, so I’m back on my usual one, but I’ll probably try other riffs in the future, this time focused on trying to reap the weight loss benefit while still feeling good.

Thanks a lot for organizing this, this was a lot of fun to do, and I love reading about people’s various attempts at solving the puzzle that is metabolic disease!

90594710 – Potato + Dairy, then Potato + Dairy + Greens

Riff 

I’m planning to do the (understandably popular) potato+dairy diet for the first two weeks, and then add in leafy greens for the following two weeks, crossover study style.

Report

My 4 weeks of data are in! Was, of course, fun as always. … I didn’t do any precise measurement for the leafy greens, but can weigh a sample of spinach and then back-estimate how much of that I ate during a given day with spinach indicated. I also have weight data for the 12 days before I started if that would be of any use. (Interesting note: I dropped more weight in this period, Jan 1st to Jan 13th, than I did during my actual trial, without doing anything special. Just holiday weight going away? Unsure.)  

For context, I did the original potato diet (though I allowed myself dairy during that time) and went from ~165lbs to ~158lbs–in other words, it worked pretty alright for me. (I’m on the taller side, so reminder, lower starting BMI -> lower expected % weight loss.) I’ve mostly fluctuated around the midpoint of that range since then. My starting weight for this riff trial was near the lower end of that, at ~159lbs.

Ok, with that out of the way, my riff was that dairy was once again fair game, but this time, I would also allow green leafy vegetables for the last two weeks. No particular reason for this, beyond that I had started craving them during my original trial–a bit of an odd craving, as I’m usually not as good about getting my greens as I should be, though I do also get that craving sometimes even when I’m not thinking about what I eat. Well, that and that leafy greens are “healthy”, so… something something, should make the diet work better, maybe? Turns out my answer to that is “Ehh, looks inconclusive to me.” I did lose weight overall during both the (potato+dairy) and the (potato+dairy+greens) periods: 1.1lbs and 0.4lbs, respectively. Losing less weight while eating greens doesn’t score a ton of points for that approach. However, those numbers can be a bit misleading, as they’re sensitive to local noise at the endpoints of the time periods. The slope of the trendline was more negative when I did have greens: -.0146 without greens vs -.0538 with them.

So I clearly lost less weight in this riff trial than in my original trial. Why? Well, it wasn’t the greens; even if I had lost 1.1lbs in the second half of my riff trial like I did in the first half, that still only gets me to about a third of what I lost in my original trial. One answer might lie in the types of potato preparation I did. In my original trial, my usual diet was hash browns for breakfast, and baked potatoes with a bit of cheese and/or sour cream for lunch and dinner. During my riff trial, I had way more of what people usually consider unhealthy potatoes: hash browns for breakfast, frozen -> oven-baked fries for lunch, and often milk-and-butter-heavy mashed potatoes for dinner; also, about one bowl (like, cereal bowl sized, not popcorn bowl sized) of potato chips a day. I also had way more dairy than in my original trial, snacking on cheese, putting cheese in my hash browns, putting whole milk in my coffee (which I always drank black during my original trial), and so forth. My deviations from these typical meals in the original diet were also fewer and less drastic; I’d occasionally have fries for dinner, but then be back to 2 meals a day of baked potato, whereas during my riff, the exceptions were more along the lines of “cook some potatoes and spinach in a boatload of heavy cream” and then that would be what I ate for the next couple days. Lastly, my vegetables when I had them were–while I did stick entirely to leafy greens–underwhelming from an “eating healthy veggies” perspective. I went through about a pound of spinach, a little over 4lbs of Brussels sprouts (some steamed, but mostly roasted with oil), and one 12oz bag of romaine lettuce. Not too terribly much healthy greenery for a 2-week span where greenery is one of the 3 types of food I can eat. I don’t think exercise was a factor; the only real exercise I did during either trial was go for the occasional walk, and I strongly suspect I got more walking in during my riff than my first trial.

Anyway, first and foremost, this was delicious and fun (and very easy). If you’re still thinking about doing a riff trial and don’t feel strongly about which one to do, I endorse this one as being enjoyable. (Probably less so than potatoes and chocolate, but hey.) If I were to do it again, the changes I would make are:

– Measure more stuff. In my original trial I tracked about a dozen variables and eventually found it a bit tedious. I overcorrected in my riff trial though, only really tracking my weight and a freeform notes field. I definitely wish I’d done more quantitative measurements, such as precise amounts of dairy and greens.

– Lean harder into the greens as a source of fresh, leafy joy rather than just yet another thing to be fried (I often threw spinach in the pan with my hash browns) or cooked with oil. I think I’d’ve had a more enjoyable time and gotten more interesting data if I’d cut out most of my roasted sprouts and instead gone through like 10 bags of romaine.

– Higher starting weight? Is that a thing I’m allowed to say I’d change? I don’t exactly have full control over it (I’ve never tried to gain weight and don’t know if I could intentionally do so–nor have I really tried to lose it outside of mad potato science) and it feels sort of dishonest to try to juice up your weight–either artificially or by waiting for a natural high point in your fluctuation–before starting a diet, even if you have a maybe-somewhat-valid reason to think it makes scientific sense to do so.

81281674 – Potatoes + Carrots + Dairy + Misc.

Riff 

Nearly all potatoes, carrots, some dairy. Allow ketchup, seasoning, and oil without restriction. However, I work somewhere that provides free lunch, so if they happen not to have potatoes, I’m going to just eat a light vegetarian+chicken lunch of whatever’s available. This time around my primary goal is to lose weight, so I’m going to be conservative and stick mostly to potatoes apart from the convenience of free lunches. After I reach my goal of -15 lbs, I may try adding bread to get more data into the hypothesis that bread halts weight loss from the potato diet.

Report

Hey, I finally got around to filling in the spreadsheet (I had been tracking in a weight app and personal notes until then) and noticed I’m already four weeks in, so here’s that email.

Things seem to be going well, and I’m going to continue until I get to my goal of 155 lb, then add bread and keep going, as planned.

Eyeballing my data, it looks like I was stagnant Feb 7-12, though I can’t think of a reason for that.

FYI I’ve been subtracting the weight of my poop every morning to reduce variance. Hope that doesn’t mess you up.

Let me know if you have any questions.

10455414 – Potatoes + Dairy + “Three Sisters”

Riff 

I’d like to do the pure potato+dairy for two weeks to see what happens.  One cheat day per week.  Then add in corn.  If that seems to work, I’ll add in the other two of the three sisters: squash and beans.  I’m a member of the Cherokee Nation and think that “New World” grains and veggies are better for you, and that the European additions like beef, chicken, wheat, etc. have screwed up our digestive systems.  

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I was initially planning on doing the potato diet for a few weeks, then adding corn, squash and beans.  This is a Native diet – it uses nothing from the “old world” but only what Native Americans ate before the Europeans arrived.

I never added the corn.  I had some digestive issues so added broccoli, carrots, green beans, and cauliflower.  I had a glass of wine most nights, and a cheat night every Friday.

Here’s what went wrong:  I REALLY like potatoes.  I wolfed down bag after bag of Cape Cod Kettle Cooked chips for two weeks, along with a few visits to Five Guys.  I was in heaven.  But I didn’t lose weight for the first two weeks.  What’s amazing is that I didn’t gain any!

When I cut back on the chips and fries, and substituted more baked potatoes, my weight started dropping.  I also started lifting weights, so my fat loss is probably greater than my weight loss.

The net is that I lost about 5 pounds in five weeks.  

Quitting now.  May go back on it later.

12582676 – Potatoes + Chicken + White Wine

Riff 

My riff (description I sent in the beginning): 

  1. unlimited whole potato, maximum source of calories possible 
  2. measured doses of chicken meat (probably 20-40g of extra protein/day) in addition to potatoes because i worry that potatoes don’t give me enough protein -> muscle loss (i need ~70g pure protein according to online calculators) – might substitute for ~30g of protein from canned sardines when out of chicken (easier) 
  3. 3 bottles of white wine on the weekends (fri sat sun) 
  4. likely to completely fast on Monday because it makes me feel better  

Cooking: 

  • * simply pan-fried with a bit of olive oil, OR baked in oven, OR boiled in a chicken soup (for soup will eat all of it so no minerals/nutrients are wasted) 
  • * when eating out with friends, may eat fries to keep company but nothing else. Also may eat frozen hash browns when in super-hurry at home, but still potatoes. 
  • * regular dried spices (salt, pepper, dried dill weed, cumin, etc.) 
  • * will do my best to take the potato skins off because you told me that lots of skins lead to indigestion, but that’s a lot of work, so sometimes just cut up whole 
  • * no dairy, tomatoes, etc. – just maximum potatoes, supplemented with 20-40g of chicken protein, with measured wine on the weekends.

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just wanted to share some notes on my recently completed riff (12582676):

* I stuck to the rules as described in that doc pretty well, cheated only for two days or so during the holidays, as marked in there.

* There are pretty big day-to-day variations, at first because I weighed at different times, later not entirely sure why, but I diligently weighed multiple times each time and recorded everything as is.

* I can think of a few factors: some days I was too lazy to cook enough potatoes so didn’t get nearly enough calories, a few other days ate too much junk potatoes like frozen tater tots or french fries when eating out, maybe that contributed to ups/downs in the numbers

* Overall, as much as I tried to like this approach, I felt pretty low energy and this is probably not sustainable for me long-term. That’s probably the biggest problem for me, I can deal with routine and cooking, but I need to have energy during the day, and somehow I didn’t end up feeling like I could sustain the required energy level.

Fun experiment and I’m looking forward to more experiments in the future!

04194992 – Potato + Red Meat + Dairy

Riff 

Potato+fatty dairy+red meat. I have chronically lowish ferritin levels so I don’t want to skip meat; I like my coffee with milk/creme, so I won’t skip dairy. Therefore, this seems to be the only potato riff diet available to me.

I’ve kept myself at normal weight my whole life with great effort; I haven’t felt satiety since puberty, e.g. I always want to eat more (I had normal satiety reaction as a child, but this was suddenly lost). When eating moderately so that I keep stable normal weight my homeostasis mechanism figures there’s a famine and downregulates heat production and immune response etc, which is not healthy. A month ago I went through a 6-week “keto-diet” (in quotation marks because I ate so much keto-food that I never really reached ketosis) and slowly lost some weight without going into famine mode. However, keto diet is awfully expensive, especially when cooking for a family of four, and also I was badly craving for starchy foods. Yet the high amount of fat may have allowed me to lose weight without physiologically starving, for the first time in my life. So I’ll try potatoes (cheap) with fat (prevents starvation), maybe this works. 

I’ll try to eat meat regularly but not too much (in case high protein makes people fat*). I’ll use heavy cream in coffee, butter in food, and sometimes maybe eat peaces of pure butter from the fridge, in case I get too hungry. Potatoes either mushed, baked or fried. I’ll supplement iron, B12 (and some other Bs), C and D vitamin, that’s my usual.

Will start on 8th January, I’ll try to stay on the diet for 4 weeks, but there’s a high chance that I’ll stop earlier if it turns out to be unbearable. 

___

* It looks like the human diet science has made an almost full circle, starting with blaming fat intake, then sugar and starch, and now it has reached proteins at last. I’m waiting for the blame to fall on fats again, just to be sure it goes in circles. 

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Dear SMTM,

I’m reporting the results of my diet trial (number 04194992, potato+redmeat+dairy).

I quit my trial after two weeks, sorry. Mainly I just ran out of willpower and also I didn’t see any difference from a garden-variety calorie-counting diet. Which may be expected, as potatoes, red meat plus fatty dairy together are a diverse kind of diet, with all the usual macronutrients nicely present.

General information: I decided to keep meat consumption at around 100g a day, which is quite moderate, I thought. I also restricted dairy to reasonable amounts and ate potatoes by far the most. I started out counting calories every day just to know how much I eat and always stopped eating at around 2000 kcal. For context, online calculators tell me to consume 1800 kcal per day to stay at a constant weight. I wanted to eat much more, of course. So I never ate potatoes ad libitum. Should I eat potatoes ad libitum, I’d get very fat very soon. (I once tried to start the potato-only diet, but couldn’t last more than a week, cravings for other foods got too strong.)

This diet started with a nice clear water loss in 2-4 days, then a plateau, some more weight loss after I further reduced the intake of calories a week in (deliberately but against my will as usual). Then another plateau, an inevitable cheat day at my child’s birthday followed by weight gain, and soon after that I gave in. Started with BMI at 24.6 and ended up at 23.7.

I wasn’t horribly hungry or horribly cold, but I thought about food all the time and wanted to eat much more than I did. Also craved for fresh fruits.  

So I would call this diet not working. That supports the conclusions of previous trials by other people who combined potatoes with red meat. Maybe fatty dairy and any other fat would be okay but the protein in even a small amount of meat ruins everything? To be honest, I don’t think I would’ve done better with just potato and dairy, I’m too hungry by nature. The amounts of potato and dairy I could consume if allowed to do so ad libitum, are large. 🙂

I don’t know if this is any use but it’s still a non-zero amount of information. 🫤

Cheers,

T

37791108 – Potato + Vegan Protein

Riff 

I want to do potato with vegan protein. So either a protein shake or a protein bar with each potato meal. I estimate the breakdown would be 25% calories from protein, 5-10% oil or seasoning for potatoes and 65-70% potato. No restrictions on preparation of potato. My preferred protein powder is is pea protein. I also eat protein bars with peanut and soy and wheat gluten. My plan is to try it for January then re-assess.

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Hello Slime Molds,

I would consider the potato + plant protein a success. I lost 10 lbs/month on full tato but I suspect that I lost muscle during this as well. On potato riff I lost 6 lbs at day 24 but I did not feel like I lost muscle.

I actually screwed up the protocol on day 25 and 26 because I went on a vacation and ate like a pig. This was a really bad month for me to do this experiment. Earlier, I had 3 days where I was trapped at work and had to eat their non-potato catering. I had several social events where I ate things like birthday cake to be a part of the group. However, I did not find myself craving these “forbidden” foods so much as I wanted to participate in the gatherings.

Overall I am very happy and am going to continue the protocol, with breaks for social situations. I think even more than the weight loss, it is a huge quality of life boost to feel satiety. It sucks being hungry all the time. Even if I am not dieting, there is a constant gnawing hunger. 

With bread, pasta, rice, and even salad I can go from completely full to starving in 45-60 min. With potatoes I have a more lasting satiety that can go for 2-4 hours depending on various factors.

I seasoned my potatoes so boringness was not really a factor in my diet. Eating beans or tofu for protein did not really seem to effect my results vs a straight protein bar or shake. Ketchup did not seem to effect my results but I also use a no sugar added ketchup. I used some oils and margarine to cook with but tried to use them sparingly and keep it under 5% of my total daily caloric intake.

Also I found out that I have anemia and have probably had it for years. And that I have had shitty doctors who ignored my bloodwork that whole time. I started IV iron treatments for malabsorption in the middle of the potato riff diet. But the doctor said it would take 21-28 days for new blood cells to grow, so I wouldn’t see the results of the iron treatments yet.

41470698 – Potatoes + Eggs

Riff 

I want to try potato + eggs, both ad libitum. 

Reasoning: I’ve previously had great success with the slow carb diet from the book the “four hour body”. Eggs were a staple breakfast item there. Because I had success I believe potato plus eggs should also work. Furthermore eggs are super tasty and contain a ton of nutrients which seems good.

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Hello SMTM,

I have completed the potato riff trial 4 weeks. You can publish this text anonymously in any way you see fit.

I was planning to make a detailed description of my experience, but I’m unsure how to make coherent thoughts about this experience. So I have just written down some tidbits. Make of them what you will.

This was truly novel and weird. I have never done an experiment like this.

Beforehand I set myself to only eat Potatoes and Eggs. In hindsight I believe it’s more fair to say I ate three things: Potatoes, Eggs and Olive Oil. I’m a huge olive oil enjoyer and that’s also how I like my eggs. Adding to that the oven fried potatoes to that results in a good quantity of olive oil. So I think it would be fair to say I ate a lot of olive oil. I have stayed tot the protocol almost every day of the 4 weeks.

I think I marked 3 cheat days. Probably it’s like 4, as one evening I just wanted something different.

I probably ate more eggs than my bodies was telling me to eat. At certain points during the 4 weeks I didn’t really want to eat eggs, but I also didn’t want to peel & prepare potatoes. Sometimes I then did indeed make potatoes, but sometimes I still ate some eggs instead. I should probably have eaten potatoes instead, but I didn’t have the willpower. 

That was one thing that I was surprised by. The sheer amount of potatoes I had to peel. Finding the time in my schedule to do that was interesting. After a while I just started peeling 3 kilos of potatoes in one sitting. I feel like meal prep is very important for following any of these experiments. 

I started trying to mark different things on the sheet, but the effort of even doing the experiment won in the end.

Recipe discovery: Spanish omelets, It’s basically eggs, potato and olive oil, perfect! Hard to make well though, I had mixed results keeping the kitchen and the floor clean.

Tidbit about eggs: In “4 Hour Body” Tim Ferriss recommends eating eggs without yolks or organic eggs. Not sure if this matters, but perhaps there is some substantial difference between organic and non-organic eggs. I stuck to organic eggs for the whole experiment. For the Netherlands, this article lists the different between our “Scharreleieren”, “Vrije uitloopeieren” and “Biologische eieren”: https://www.bnnvara.nl/kassa/artikelen/scharrel-biologisch-of-vrije-uitloopei-wat-is-nou-het-verschil. I only ate “Biologische eieren”.

Bowel movements were truly weird for the first 4-5 days. I had some weird diarrhea, that’s different from the diarrhea I regularly get with heavily processed food. I usually have it the day after when I ordered a pizza for example. With this experiment it was weird though. After eating the sweet potatoes it seems like they just passed through me with no ‘processing’ by my body. It seems that my body adjusted afterward though, because I had no issues the rest of the time. Even though I also tried sweet potatoes again later, those were completely fine.

I felt fine other than the diarrhea. I find these things hard to compare over time, because my remembering self seems so different from my experiencing self. But it seems that I wasn’t feeling much better or worse during the trial.

As for conclusions, the only one I am drawing from this experience is: When I eat only potatoes and eggs ad libitum, I will generally maintain my current weight.

Which is a little disappointing because I was hoping to lose a little. But also it’s different from the status quo, because before the trial I was eating anything a libitum and was gaining weight. So it’s a change from the mean.

22293376 – Potatoes + Skittles

Riff 

Potatoes (fat and salt allowed) + skittles candies. I intend to follow this for a month and see what happens. My reasoning is that I believe adherence will be easier when allowing occasional treats, and because I don’t think that refined sugar has a moral valence. 

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Hi there,

My riff is now complete. I was astonished at just how well it went, thanks for doing all this work!

32602136 – Standard Potato Diet

Riff

Plain potato diet, salt, black pepper, nothing else. I have already prepared an assload of potatoes for the fridge (russet, salad, baby, baking)

Report

Hi, I have some weeks of data complete, but took a break over Christmas period and taking another break now. I hope it is useful.

UPDATE

Hi, I think I will take a semi-break and cease recording data for now – overall I’ve been really pleased with the results. Added some thoughts below:

I read about Penn Jillette’s potato diet and then found SMTM and thought it sounded too good to be true, so I figured it would be worth a shot to lose some excess weight. My potato riff was to include some pepperoni, salami, chorizo and other cured meats to see if they would help with any anticipated cravings for other food and to break up the monotony of only eating potatoes. This turned out to be unnecessary, to my surprise at no point did I become bored of or frustrated with potatoes. They were delicious to start with and remained satisfying the entire time.

I chose a mix of baking, baby, sweet, and red potatoes, always with the skin left on, mostly boiled or baked. I did not use oil or butter, and usually only salt and pepper as seasonings.

I enjoyed knowing that once I had prepared the next batch of potatoes there was no meal prep left to do and nothing to fuss about. The cost of preparing weekly meals was incredibly cheap. If I wanted a snack, the potatoes were ready, if I wanted a larger meal, I would just take more potatoes. I experienced no cravings for any other type of food the entire time and would’ve been just as content with solely potatoes.

The main downside I experienced throughout the last few weeks was taking the time to prepare all the potatoes – baking especially. It often felt like a chore. Storing the cooked potatoes in suitable containers meant that I only had around 2 days worth ready to eat at any time, and I felt a slight resentment that I had to prepare more when they were running low.

I chose to pause the diet over the Christmas period as it wouldn’t be feasible with family meals and such, though after it had ended my weight had not shot back up which was a pleasant surprise.

I saw an immediate drop in weight that leveled off but has stayed off (around 6 lbs) and seemed to fluctuate at random. My lowest weight was reached on the 19th of January despite not doing anything differently, not noticeably eating less or exercising more, and taking several breaks from the diet. Going forward I think I will incorporate far more potatoes into my daily diet, knowing that I can snack on something filling and pleasant that doesn’t seem to have any negative effect on my weight is great. I think if I had solely stuck to potatoes and had no breaks I would’ve lost maybe double the amount of weight, but even though it isn’t a huge amount I am still really impressed with the whole idea. I’ve recommended it to one of my friends and he has begun his own potato diet after reading the blog, so it is pretty convincing.

75452454 – “Whole Foods” + Chocolate

Riff

I’m gonna stick to whole foods and chocolate. I originally lost a lot of weight years ago eating basically cabbage and brussels sprouts every day but during covid I gained some of that back due to stress. I want to commit to a diet of primarily roasted or raw vegetables. I’ll allow mustard, hot sauce, almost no dairy, and only chocolate when necessary.

I should’ve tracked [potatoes] independently but looking back [they] worked out to about 10% of my diet each day.

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Technically completed back in December but then the holidays happened and I forgot to finish the last days of the diary.

To be honest that was pretty bad, I couldn’t stick to the diet I’d planned for the life of me and definitely gained some weight. If it’s all good I’m going to try a different tact and see how that goes.

75462073 – Potatoes + Other Vegetables + Fruit + Limited Proteins (Soy, Eggs, Fish) + Limited Dairy (Butter)

Riff 

I had done one before focusing on “whole foods and chocolate” but I want to narrow that down. I’m doing potatoes + other vegetables + fruit + limited proteins (soy, eggs, fish) + limited dairy (butter). I’m also going to focus on incorporating exercise since I think that helps not with hitting specific caloric goals but creating a widen margin of error for hitting caloric goals. I also think exercise’s affect on mood helps with making better food choices and sticking to a stricter diet. I’m really angling to recreate previous success I’d had losing weight with a more varied diet than just potatoes and that had involved a lot of cole crops, tofu, and avoiding grains and sweets. I intend to submit results at 4 weeks and then continue if I’m having success.

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Hey besties,

I just wrapped week 4 of my potato riff to some, spoiler alert, middling results!

I’ll probably keep tracking for a week or two longer but we’ll see! I don’t think at any point did I feel like I was in the potato zone. I did make a little progress, I’m 7 lbs down from when I initially filled out the form but that’s still less than the 2/week industry standard and came with a lot of ups and downs.

98821299 – Fried Potatoes

Riff

I want to try a Fried potato riff. I think fries and such are delicious. As I’ve been eating rice and pasta for the last few weeks, it’s time for a change. 

I would also like to know if the amount of PUFA is more important than the amount of BCAA. 

This time last year I had lost about 10kg using a table that calculates real calorie consumption based on intake and weight loss. I’ve since gained it back again, but it was stable for quite a long time. It was only when I doubled my BCAA intake from around 10g to 20g that I became heavier. However, this could also be due to strength training or an increase in my vegan butter consumption. I wasn’t aware of the concept of BCAA restriction at the time and I didn’t have much success with PUFA avoidance before. 

I took part in the potassium experiment back then but didn’t stick with it. This stuff is pretty disgusting and after 1-2 weeks I lost all motivation. 

I hope I can hold out this time! 

  • I want to know i the amount of PUFA or BCAA has a bigger impact on bodyweight. 
  • There will be some Potatoes, but also other low BCAA foods like Rice.  
  • “However, for now it wont limit the amount of PUFA. I will use a reasonabel amount of it to cook my food.  Not drink oil straigt from the jug.” 
  • Calories aren´t counted to keep the data somewhat unbiased. 
  • If there is something, it should work ad lib.  
  • If BCAA´s are such important signal molecules it will be refelctet in the data. 
  • If its neither BCAA or PUFA it shoud also show. 
  • A multivitamin suplement is taken every day. 
  • I´m Vegan, so if i write things like “Butter” or “Cheese” its always a Vegan version of it

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Hey There, i fucked around and found (something, maybe) out!

My goal with this messy riff was to find data on the relationship between BCAA, PUFA and body weight.

I recorded protein, BCAAs, fat, PUFAs, carbohydrates and fiber in addition to food eaten for 30 days. Unfortunately, it only occurred to me in the last few days that carbohydrates might also be important. I have therefore only been able to collect 2 data points from them so far. So I will continue my riff for another 30 days to get meaningful data.

I have started to analyze all the data. I may have damaged your summary. I am sorry.

Let’s start with calculated correlations of the individual macros and body data for my weight.

Protein – 0.009195770085

The amount of protein does not seem to be particularly important in my quantities. The trend line is also almost horizontal.

BCAA – 0.0171401008

The amount of BCAA per kg body weight seems to be a bit more important. In the diagram, however, the trend line is completely horizontal.

Fat – -0.5219424632

More fat made me quite reliably heavier the next day.

PUFA – -0.3515048417

The same goes for PUFA. Interestingly, the less fat and the higher the PUFA content, the less weight gain.

Steps – 0.4659220545

More weight = more energy = more exercise.

Calories – 0.3381898136

I’m not surprised either. I have to get rid of the energy somehow.

In the next step I compared the macros I ate the day before with the change in weight overnight.

As already mentioned, the amount of protein seems to have little or no relevance. Both trend lines are almost horizontal. Fats on the other hand seem to make me heavier. However, data on carbohydrates is missing for the comparison.

So what happens next?

I will also record carbohydrates and keep the amount of fat down. I may increase the amount of protein when I see results. I have put on 4 kg for science and I don’t like that.

Gradient Descending Through Brinespace


I.

Cholera gives you severe diarrhea, which leads to agonizing, life-threatening dehydration.  

Doctors long realized that cholera patients needed electrolytes, but electrolyte solutions didn’t seem to help. In fact, giving patients electrolytes in IV or in an oral solution often made them worse.

After decades of trial and error, they discovered a mixture of water, electrolytes, and sugar that would treat the dehydration from cholera instead of making it worse. This brine came to be known as oral rehydration solution (ORS), and is now the standard treatment for extreme dehydration. 

One thing that might surprise you about this mix is that sugar is an active ingredient. It’s not just for taste — the brine literally doesn’t work without it. As it turns out, for esoteric biology reasons sodium can only be absorbed in the gut when it’s paired with glucose:

Why did [early attempts] at oral rehydration fail? It seems that the scientist[s] didn’t yet know some of the fundamental biology of how glucose and sodium was absorbed in the body. Work in the late 1950s and early 1960s had established that sugar and sodium ions are absorbed together in the gut through a sodium-glucose cotransport protein. In turn, this sodium and glucose pulls water from the gut into the body.

Another surprise is that you need to get the solution just right. You can’t just pick a random point in brinespace. As researcher Robert Allan Phillips discovered, if you choose the wrong ratio of ingredients, you kill your patients instead: 

The trial was a disaster. When Phillips returned to Manila a week later he was told that five of his 30 trial participants had died. It’s not clear exactly what went wrong with Phillips’ experiment, but we do know that the oral solution he put together had far too much glucose and salt. This made the solution extremely hypertonic — it drew water out of the patients’ cells and exacerbated their dehydration.

Functional solutions for cholera exist only in a relatively small range. Go too far outside that range, and the solution hurts your patients instead of helping them. 

We don’t know how narrow that range really is. But we do know you have to get the mix right, or it doesn’t work.

II.

Any combination of electrolytes in solution can be expressed as a point in high-dimensional brinespace.

We begin with a liter of water, the origin along all dimensions. A simple brinespace might define a brine by the concentrations of sodium and potassium per liter, written as [mg Na, mg K]. 

The point [100, 100] would indicate a brine that contains 100 mg each of sodium and potassium per liter of water. Official concoctions of ORS are more complex, but the simplest make-it-at home version of ORS is located at the point [1150, 0].

But that’s not quite right, is it? ORS contains other ingredients than just sodium and water. Most notable is sugar. If we define a new brinespace of [mg Na, mg K, g sugars], then ORS is located at [1150, 0, 25].

Gatorade is another simple brine. With 270 mg sodium, 80 mg potassium, and 34 g of sugar in a 20 oz bottle, it can easily be defined as the brine at [460, 135, 60] (with some rounding). 

One “stick” of the electrolyte mix LMNT contains 1000 mg sodium, 200 mg potassium, and 60 mg magnesium. We’ll have to add magnesium to our brinespace, which we’ll now define as [mg Na, mg K, mg Mg, g sugars]. They recommend you mix this with “anywhere from 16 to 32oz of water”. Given that 32 oz is approximately a liter, this means that LMNT produces brines approximately along the line from [2000, 400, 120, 0] to [1000, 200, 60, 0].

Other electrolyte drinks can be characterized the same way. LiquidIV is located at [1060, 780, 0, 25]. Pedialyte is almost the same (at least in terms of these dimensions), resting near [1030, 780, 0, 25]. Propel (a Gatorade product), has no sugar and can be found at the coordinates [460, 120, 0, 0].

The location of “snake juice” is left as an exercise for the reader.

Even Red Bull is something of a brine. If we define a new brinespace that includes caffeine [mg Na, mg K, mg Mg, g sugars, mg caffeine], then Red Bull is located at approximately [420, 0, 0, 110, 320].  

Red Bull isn’t even that unique for having caffeine. Thirst Quencher 2 (TQ2), the forbidden sequel to Gatorade, itself contains caffeine. While Quaker Oats sued to take ownership of TQ2, and then buried it forever such that it has never seen commercial release, we have what appears to be the patent, which defines TQ2 pretty well. Ignoring the phosphate, glycerol, and pyruvate for the moment, we can use the same brinespace as Red Bull. In terms of this brinespace, TQ2 appears to be at about [600, 80, 0, 40, 150], compared to standard Gatorade at [460, 135, 0, 60, 0].

TQ2 makes it pretty clear that the only sugar it contains is glucose, while in standard Gatorade the sugar is some combination of sucrose (50% glucose and 50% fructose) and dextrose. In case that makes a difference, and assuming for the moment that standard Gatorade contains only sucrose, we might want to define a new brinespace [mg Na, mg K, mg Mg, g glucose, g fructose, mg caffeine], in which case TQ2 is located around [600, 80, 0, 40, 0, 150], with standard Gatorade at [460, 135, 0, 30, 30, 0].

(This makes us wonder if glucose is functionally different than other sugars. ORS recipes specify glucose, which suggests that other sugars might not work. TQ2 claims to be an improvement on Gatorade and also specifies glucose. Does fructose not fill the same functions? Is there no sodium-fructose cotransport protein?)

The astute reader will have noticed that all the ions we’ve been talking about up to this point are cations. What’s up with that? Is there some kind of big prejudice against anions? Of all the mixes we’ve looked at so far, Pedialyte is the only one that lists chloride on its nutrition facts label, though most electrolyte solutions presumably have some chloride, since most use NaCl or KCl. Pedialyte in fact gives a percent daily value of chloride (440 mg is apparently 20% DV). We had no idea chloride even had a recommended daily value. But it is in fact an essential electrolyte — without it, you die. 

Or how about iodine? That’s an essential electrolyte, it’s a anion (as iodide), but it’s never added to electrolyte drinks, never mentioned on nutrition labels. Maybe people don’t want to hear about chloride ions in their Gatorade, because it makes Gatorade sound like it’s chlorinated (which in some sense, it is), but why not iodide? Any electrolyte mix that includes iodized salt will contain both iodide and chloride, and both of them are biologically active.

Anyways, good on the Pedialyte team for being the exception

A brine might contain any number of other ingredients, and these don’t necessarily need to be electrolytes or sugars. 

For example, you could define a brinespace that includes some acids. Ascorbic acid (AKA vitamin C) would be one natural choice — in this case, your brine would cure scurvy. You could also include citric acid. This is certainly found in lemonade, though it’s not clear whether it’s an active ingredient in that context. 

Or how about acetic acid, better known as vinegar? The health benefits are controversial, but there are many cultural drinks that are basically just sugar + acetic acid. The ancient Greeks had oxymel, the Romans had posca. Persians have sekanjabin, England gave us “shrubs“, and New England has switchel. Lots of cultures seemed to settle on this combination independently, and kept with it for hundreds of years. Maybe there’s something to it.

Even Milk is a brine. It contains sodium and potassium, calcium, sugars, even iron. It’s an unusually complex brine, sure, but a brine nonetheless. 

malk

III.

Some brines have health and wellness benefits.

ORS is the clearest example. Brines from the correct region of brinespace provide a fast and effective treatment for the intense dehydration of cholera. Go too far outside of that region of brinespace, and the brines stop working, then start making the patients worse — some brines will even kill them. It doesn’t work if the ratios are off! Finding the correct location in brinespace matters a lot.

While ORS is exceptional, we don’t think it’s unique. For starters, we have anecdotes like this one

The extreme version of “grogginess on waking” is hangovers. If you take Pedialyte for hangovers, you are already brining. The company also believes in this application — they recently released a formulation for just that situation.

Sports drinks are another obvious example. Gatorade makes $7 billion in sales per year. Either Gatorade provides some kind of benefit, or their marketing team deserves a raise.

And there are the direct testimonials. Robb Wolf, the co-founder of LMNT, says

Salt-deprived rats are sad. They loaf around their cages, ignoring the sugar water that usually brings them joy. It’s classic depressed behavior.

I unwittingly ran a similar experiment on myself for the better part of 20 years. I was sweating buckets—unlike pigs, who don’t actually sweat by the way—on the jiu-jitsu mat, but wasn’t consuming enough sodium to replace my losses. I felt low-energy, foggy, and, as I think back, losing passion for my sport. I wasn’t giving my body what it needed, and my mood paid the price. Getting more salt was the remedy.

Compared to other factors, the link between sodium status and mood isn’t well-publicized. I want to change that. I’m not saying salt is a cure for depression, but I do believe it’s worth considering as part of a holistic approach to mood maintenance. Mental health is the fruit of many inputs. And oftentimes many things are out of our control, but getting enough sodium isn’t one of them.

If Robb is right, then some cases of “depression” might just be a chronic lack of electrolytes. This would be simple to test.

Like ORS, Robb also claims that the wrong mix of electrolytes doesn’t work. In our terms, you need to find the correct point, or at least the correct region, in brinespace.

POPULAR PRODUCTS DIDN’T CUT IT. … When I dialed in the formulation I immediately felt my fitness, sleep, and brain functioning on new levels.

Sodium and glucose aren’t the only ingredients where you need to get the mix right. One of our friends, a physician, pointed out that for patients with low potassium (hypoK), if you don’t have enough magnesium (hypoMg), you’ll be hypoK forever unless you fix the hypoMg first, because of “some renal excretion thing I think” (his words). See also this paper, which says: “magnesium replacement is often necessary before hypokalemia and potassium depletion can be satisfactorily corrected with potassium supplements.”

Of course, most regions of any brinespace are going to be unremarkable, or slightly dehydrating. But there are reasons to suspect that some brines, in some situations, are the perfect solution. 

IV.

Here are three candidates for new brines with plausible health benefits:

First, we think there’s evidence that high-potassium brines can cause weight loss.

Ketoade is a term for various concoctions of electrolyte drink, usually high in potassium, that people often drink while on ketogenic diets. People mostly seem to drink this to fight “keto flu”, which may just be the feeling of not having enough electrolytes. But ketoade might also be part of the reason that people lose weight on keto diets. Not from the diet — from the extra potassium. 

When we ran the potassium trial, people took supplemental potassium, usually in water or as part of a concoction. On average, people lost weight, a mean of 0.89 lbs over 29 days (n = 104, p = .014). 

Despite being statistically different from zero, 0.89 lbs obviously isn’t much in practical terms. But people who took more potassium lost more weight on average (r = -0.276, p = .005), which is additional evidence that there’s something here. And three people lost more than 10 lbs, suggesting that there might be specific ways of taking potassium that are especially effective. 

These three participants seem to be more than outliers. For example, here’s one of their reports:

(77174810) First of all – holy shit! It’s amazing how well this worked and it’s also surprising that it’s never really been studied before! Thank you for the analysis and thought that you put into this. For this trial, I basically just ate whatever I felt like, went to a football tailgate party nearly every weekend with lots of beer and foods you would not associate with dieting… and still lost nearly 10 lbs!

I have tried every diet/exercise and variation of CICO, atkins, keto, IF, etc., etc., etc. to try and lose weight. To no one’s surprise, nothing really worked for long and the weight always came back. At the end of 2020 I was over 275. It took me three months of busting my ass to lose 20 pounds and as soon as I started eating “normally” again, I slowly started putting weight back on.

Of interest to our point today, this participant took his potassium in solution. If there is an ideal brine for losing weight, it might look something like this:

(77174810) What I discovered was that mixing [potassium] with Simply Strawberry Lemonade makes it very palatable! I dissolved the KCl and a little sea-salt in about 1 oz of water. Then added about 4-6 oz strawberry lemonade. You could damn near sip it this way! Apple cider was the second best mixer.

But the strongest evidence that high-potassium brines can cause weight loss is certainly Krinn. 

After some success as a participant in the potassium trial (6 lbs lost), Krinn decided to keep going, increasing her potassium intake and searching for a protocol that she could stick to long-term. At the six month mark, she wrote a tumblr post as a report about her progress. You can read her report here and our review of that report here. Here’s how she describes her approach:

I decided to stabilize at about 10,000mg [potassium] per day … because that’s about how much potassium people were getting during the SMTM potato diet community trial. … Aiming for that amount also meant that it would be easier to compare my results to something that worked decently well and to ask questions like ‘is there something special about whole potatoes, or is it mostly the potassium?’ If it’s mostly the potassium, you’d expect my results to be closer to the full-potato-diet results than to the low-dose-potassium results — which is what happened.

We can also offer a brief update on Krinn’s progress after just over one year (shared with her permission). Take a look at the plot below. As you can see, her weight loss continued until she hit a plateau at just above her target weight, which corresponds to a BMI of 25. She tells us that she’s not sure if this is because the potassium stopped working, or if it’s as a result of external life situation reasons. 

Krinn took her potassium as a brine. Specifically, she mixed potassium chloride with Gatorade. Here are the details:

I used potassium chloride powder (whatever came up first on an Amazon search since all KCl should be alike) mixed with regular Gatorade (i.e. not the sugar-free kind) to make it taste okay (I recommend blue Gatorade, it’s the closest to appealing when kaliated — the yellow lemon-lime was meh and the fruit punch red was awful). I added two heaping teaspoons of KCl powder to a 20oz. bottle of Gatorade and drank that. KCl is about 52% potassium and a heaping teaspoon of it is about 6500mg, so I rounded up a smidge and called that 6600-and-a-bit milligrams of potassium per bottle. On Thursdays and Sundays I have drank 2 full bottles and on other days 1.5 bottles. I recorded this as 10,000mg of potassium on regular days and 13,500mg on Thursdays and Sundays.

Comparing Krinn to the participant we mentioned above, who mixed their potassium chloride with strawberry lemonade, we notice a few things in common. 

Both of their potassium solutions contained sodium — Krinn from the Gatorade, while the other guy added sea salt. Both of them included sugar, from the Gatorade or the strawberry lemonade. Given what we know about ORS, it seems reasonably plausible that sugar might have an important interaction with potassium. And curiously, both included citric acid, since both Gatorade and strawberry lemonade contain some citric acid. 

The biggest difference is the potassium dose — Krinn was getting about 10,000 mg a day from her brine, while the other participant was getting only 3,000 mg/day or so. If there is an ideal weight-loss brine, it probably exists somewhere in the neighborhood of these two approaches. 

(That said, it’s not clear that such high doses of potassium are safe for everyone, and they almost certainly are not safe if you have kidney disease or related diseases like diabetes. Do not try supplementing doses this high without consulting your physician, and absolutely do not try it if you have kidney problems or any conditions that might compromise your kidney function.)

In our review of Krinn’s post, we also noted two things. First, Krinn was getting lots of magnesium on the side, through the rest of her diet. And second, she seems to eat a diet high in stearic acid. These are both ingredients that have attracted some suspicion for possibly being related to obesity, which caught our attention. You could plausibly add magnesium to your brine without any trouble (and some brines like LMNT already include a small amount of magnesium). But stearic acid is a butter-like waxy solid, it would probably not go well in most brines, though it is found in milk. Is dairy a weight-loss brine? Well, ExFatLoss would probably say yes..

Our second brine candidate is that we suspect there might be a brine or brines for IBS. 

ORS was made to treat the dehydration associated with diarrhea, not the diarrhea itself, but even so it was designed to specially calibrate your digestion. “I’ve had IBS-D,” writes u/feelslikehel, “for about 8 years. I’ve been doing the salt and water regimen for about 6 weeks now and it’s not really making me feel less dizzy but I’m finding that my IBS-D is pretty much gone.” If you have IBS with diarrhea, it might be worth mixing up some ORS. If nothing else, it will help keep you hydrated. Also compare: Large increases in sodium intake are recommended for POTS.

Or how about “Hot girls have IBS”? Hot girls tend to have something else in common — we pay a lot of attention to what we put in our bodies. No processed food, nothing that might disrupt the microbiome. Have you been avoiding salt and sugar to help with your digestion? If so, remember that both sodium and glucose are necessary for your body to absorb water from your gut. 

FINALLY

Finally, our third candidate is that there might be a magnesium brine for migraines.

There’s some evidence that oral magnesium supplements can make migraines less intense and less frequent (meta-analysis). This evidence could certainly be more consistent. But as we’ve previously seen, sometimes the right mix can be a big multiplier. Perhaps there is a magnesium brine that would be so much more consistent, or more effective.

But even assuming there does exist some brine that will treat your ailment, or will just help you feel less groggy in the morning, you still need to find it. Or to put it another way, you’d need to discover its location in a high-dimensional brinespace.

IV.

The space of all possible brines is very large. To find other brines with health benefits, we will need to develop new tools.

Behold! A 3-dimensional representation of a (hypothetical) high-dimensional brinespace, with height and color indicating “impact on migraines”. The red areas of brinespace are regions of brines that will make your migraines worse; the yellow areas will make no difference; and the blue areas are regions of brines that will make your migraines disappear. 

If everyone’s brinespace is largely the same, then it will take only one courageous migrainenaut to map its murky bottoms. But as we know, people are not much the same. And neither are migraines — if there are two or more kinds of migraines, those brinespaces will have to be mapped separately. Perhaps your neighbor’s biology is very different from yours, or she has the other kind of migraine, and her migraine topography looks like this instead: 

Who knows what these topologies would look like in real life, how deep their local and global minima might go, how much they might differ between people or over time. But that’s the point. We are going into this with a lot of uncertainty, so we should go into this with caution, and with the right tools.

Disregard, this is Eastern California

Software for searching brinespace should be modular.

The first module would be for the brine ontology, the way of defining the brinespace you want to explore. 

Put simply, there are many ways to define a space of possible brines. Some are simple, like the space [mg Na, mg K]. Some are more complicated, like the space [mg Na, mg K, mg Mg, mg Ca, mg Fe, g sugars, mg caffeine]. 

Some brinespaces make distinctions that others do not. For example, the space [mg Na, mg K, g sugars] treats all sugars as alike, or you could say, treats them as indistinguishable. But [mg Na, mg K, g glucose, g fructose] distinguishes between two common sugars and excludes all others. 

Brinespaces can also define their terms in different ways. We’ve been defining these spaces in terms of the mass or volume of the different ingredients (g, mg, L, etc.). But for the scientist mixing brines at home, it might be easier to define these spaces in teaspoons rather than grams, and ingredients like KCl or NaCl instead of the individual elements. This makes it easier to think in terms of making the brine, in terms of operations — how many teaspoons of each ingredient to add to each liter of water.

On the other hand, defining it this way can lead to ambiguous regions of brinespace, and some information may be lost. For example, a brinespace expressed in teaspoons of ingredient salts wouldn’t include the information that adding KCl and NaCl both increase Cl. If chloride ion concentrations are important, this brinespace would obfuscate that information. With that information, it’s clear that you could add baking soda (NaHCO₃) to a brine to add sodium without any additional chloride ions, or add potassium citrate (K₃C₆H₅O₇) to a brine to add potassium without any additional chloride ions.

Finally, any brine ontology should include some kind of safety limits. A brine might reasonably contain 200 mg/L potassium, but 20,000 mg/L potassium would be dangerous. No need to explore those regions. Exactly where to set these limits is up to the architect, but they should set upper limits on all the dimensions, and set them carefully. Options should be included for special populations, like people with heart conditions, who need to avoid high levels of sodium. Lower limits are not needed — if the dimensions are all at zero, you are simply drinking water. Yum. 

Perhaps over time we will find a single large brinespace that is ideal for all purposes. But we might also find that different brinespaces are better for characterizing some searches than others. It’s important that this element be modular, so different brine ontologies can be switched out and tested at ease. 

The second module would be the outcome measure. We imagine searching brinespace for mixes that improve health and wellness, and this is the module where we decide how to measure the elements of health and wellness we want to improve. 

For example, if you were following Krinn’s example and trying to discover a brine that will help you lose weight, you will want a module that measures your weight loss. A simple measure would be “each brine is rated on how much weight you lose over the next day.” But weight loss can be very noisy, so this might be too sensitive. A better measure might be rating each brine on a weighted average of weight change over the next several days.

If you are looking for something else, you want a different measure. For example, if you have “a horrible grogginess when waking up for most of [your] life” like Romeo Stevens did, you might be looking for a waking-up brine, or a sleepytime brine, to make your mornings a little brighter. In this case you might want a simple measure like, “on a scale from 1-10, how good do you feel 10 minutes after drinking your morning brine?” Or you could do some kind of complicated measure where you test your visual acuity, strength, and reaction time. It’s all the same to us.

If you are trying to find a brine to help your migraines, you could take a simple measure like, “on a scale from 1-7, how bad were your migraines this week?” Or you might find a need for a better scale, like a weighted combination of how many migraines you have each day, and how bad each of them was. You might even include some information about specific symptoms or features.

The point is, there will be many different things that people might want to find a brine for — for weight loss, for their migraines, for after a workout, for general clarity and energy. And for each of these targets, there will be many ways to measure success and progress. Some will be simple, some will be complex, some will just be different. You will want your measures to be modular so people can slot them in and out freely, to reach their own goals as they see fit. 

In addition, each module should probably include basic check questions like, “do you like this brine” and “is this brine at all palatable”, as another safety feature. If you find yourself exploring a point in brinespace that you find truly noxious, you should probably just toss that mix and rate it as a failure on all measures.

On the one hand, this approach would exclude potential brines that are disgusting, yet secretly good for you. On the other hand, we doubt that many such brines exist. If a brine is gross, it’s probably bad for you. Your body is in fact designed to deal with these things. And in reverse, if a brine mixture tastes great, that’s an early sign that it might be good for you.

(As a note, you should probably mix your brine with some kind of flavoring. If you drink your brine with water alone, you might accidentally condition yourself to expect that water is dehydrating, something we discovered in the course of our self-experiments.)

Finally, the third module is for the search algorithm and its settings. This is the procedure the software will use for searching the brine ontology or brinespace (the first module you set), and looking for brines that are effective in terms of increasing or decreasing the outcome measure (the second module you set).  

Despite the title of this post, the best kind of search algorithm for brinespace is probably simulated annealing. However, we would love to hear elaboration or correction from anyone with more experience in this area.

We shouldn’t assume that the topology of the brinespace will be static for any outcome. In plain language, we might be aiming at a moving target. The best brine today won’t always be the best brine tomorrow. You will be eating other things, exposed to the environment, and also aging. So the search algorithm should always include some amount of exploration, no matter how well it’s doing. It shouldn’t rest on its laurels. 

Assuming you define your outcome clearly enough, you choose the right kind of search algorithm, and you give the algorithm enough time, it should eventually find you the best possible brine for your outcome (as measured) within the brinespace you defined. 

That’s quite a few assumptions, and assumptions that are easy to get wrong on the first try, or first few tries. If you have spent a lot of time searching with no success, you might want to try different brine ontology modules or different outcome measures, in various combinations. If the software is especially clever, it might be able to help you with this. 

But a long search with no success might also mean that there’s no brine that will help with your problem. This is possible and in fact likely in many cases. There is no brine that can cure a broken heart — in fact, high levels of sodium are dangerous for those with heart conditions. But for some problems, the ideal brine or brines may yet be out there.

Special thanks to Krinn and Potassium Participant 77174810 for their pioneering work in the exploration of brinespace.

Links for February 2024

Friend of the blog ExFatLoss beats obesity:

Now that’s science

In honor of this accomplishment, we present the Wikimedia chart of milk products and production relationships, including butter. Beware, the mark of the British is present: “soured cream”.

Adam Mastroianni: Declining trust in Zeus is a technology

To us, coin flips are random (“Heads: I go first. Tails: you go first.”). But to an ancient human, coin flips aren’t random at all—they reveal the will of the gods (“Heads: Zeus wants me to go first. Tails: Zeus wants you to go first”). In the Bible, for instance, people are always casting lots to figure out what God wants them to do: which goat to kill, who should get each tract of land, when to start a genocide, etc. 

This is, of course, a big problem for running RCTs. If you think that the outcome of a coin flip is meaningful rather than meaningless, you can’t use it to produce two equivalent groups, and you can’t study the impact of doing something to one group and not the other. You can only run a ZCT—a Zeus controlled trial.

Also Adam Mastroianni: “I’m running a prototype Science House this summer! It’s a great opportunity for anyone looking to do research outside academia. No application, just do some science, post it on the internet, and send me the link.” Full details for the science house can be found here.

Redditor u/ParadoxicallySweet asks r/NoStupidQuestions, “Why do my husband and I experience severe flatulence after visiting his parents?” Theories quickly settle on the idea that there might be something in the in-laws’ water. Most recent update is that their water is unusually high pH and unusually hard. Keep an eye on this one!

you need to see this one to understand it

Malcolm Ocean: ​​Towardsness & Awayness Motivation are fundamentally asymmetric. Psychology used to make a big deal about the difference between “approach” and “avoid”, this kind of calls back to that idea.

Hyperstimuli are Understimulating 

​​“It’s hilarious that one of the first things the allies did with the Nuremberg defendants was give them IQ tests. Herr Goering, please rotate this rhombus on its diagonal axis.” Claimed scores and other documentation are here.

AT&T gets a solid B+ on predicting the future: “You Will” Commercials (high quality) YouTube comments have it: “These are absolutely amazing. The only thing they got wrong is ‘The company to bring it to you, AT&T’.”

“State of nuclear disarmament today: it is actually likely that the easiest path is to build a 1,000 km circumference accelerator with the power requirements of Great Britain that shoots neutrino beams through the earth to make nuclear bombs lightly explode, making them useless.” Paper is here. On the one hand this seems good in terms of preventing nuclear annihilation. On the other hand, no mutually assured destruction might mean a return to the bad old days of lots of regional wars and occasional wars between the superpowers.  

Lies, Damned Lies, and Manometer Readings

Niko McCarty: “Every Sunday, I am going to try and post a short ‘screenshot essay.’ These are short essays that present ideas. They are meant to be engaging and opinionated. I hope that you will read them. I hope they will trigger more healthy discussions.” We like this. Aside from memes, we feel that images are vastly underrated. Here’s the first one:

Philosophical Transactions: Adam Mastroianni says “please squirt lemon juice on my brain”

Previous Philosophical Transactions:


Hi SMTM,

I’ve now had the pleasure of watching many people encounter A Chemical Hunger for the first time. Some of them get wide-eyed with wonder, and some of them make the same expression that babies make when they taste lemon juice.

Those with the lemony reactions are always certain they know why the obesity epidemic happened. Often, their explanation is something like this:

We have an obesity epidemic because food became more enticing and so people eat more of it. It’s tastier, more available, more varied, more indulgent, etc. We live in a world where you can get hot salty french fries anytime, anywhere, and that’s why we’re fatter than our forefathers.

Let’s call this the McDonald’s Hypothesis. I understand the appeal of this theory because I believed it myself. It conjures up images of, say, spindly 1930s Dust Bowl migrants sipping thin stew to stave off starvation, juxtaposed with portly 2020s Americans horking down chicken McNuggets. When you put it like that, the obesity epidemic seems to make perfect sense.

But that’s not actually the comparison that needs explaining. The obesity epidemic isn’t something that happened, it’s happening. It started pretty suddenly in the 1980s, and it hasn’t stopped since. As you point out, not only did obesity increase from 2000 to 2008, but it increased faster between 2010 and 2018. For the McDonald’s hypothesis to be true, people would have to start horking down chicken McNuggets starting in 1980, they’d have to hork more nuggets every single year since then, and their nugget-horking rate would have to be increasing in recent years.

Now my intuitions are all screwed up, because that doesn’t seem true at all. Extremely tasty food was already omnipresent when I was a kid, and it doesn’t seem to have gotten tastier or more omnipresent since then. I especially don’t get the sense that food was tastier in 2018 than it was in 2015. There was already a McDonald’s in the next town over, and it’s not like they’ve opened five more since then. In fact, McDonald’s predates the obesity epidemic by decades, and the number of franchises in the US has declined slightly in recent years.

Or think of it this way: is the food in the supermarket more enticing now than it was five, ten, twenty years ago? If anything, it seems easier to get “healthy” stuff, as well as local and organic food, as this article confirms. (It also mentions a new trend of smaller grocery stores that provide less variety.) But the McDonald’s hypothesis would predict the opposite––more and more foods so enticing that I can’t help but gulp them down.

Here’s one notable example where food has gotten demonstrably less tasty. McDonald’s used to make their fries in beef tallow, which was apparently delicious. Then a rich guy named Phil Sokolof had a heart attack, blamed McDonald’s fries, and launched a $15 million campaign against them. McDonald’s caved and replaced the beef tallow with vegetable oil in 1990, and then switched the oil again in 2007 to eliminate trans fats. Malcolm Gladwell famously pines for the original fries: 

When I was a teenager and I went to McDonald’s all the time, I went there because of the fries. And then at a certain point, the fries didn’t taste the same. They sucked. I go back there now and they’re not the fries I grew up on.

[…]

What I do in the show is I go to the leading food research and development house in the country—place called Mattson—and I had them … do a taste test. And they made french fries just like McDonald’s would. The old-fashioned way using beef tallow, and then they made a precise replica of the modern fries, and we did a blind taste test. It’s no contest. I mean, it’s like you’re eating two completely different foodstuffs. It’s phenomenal. It blows my mind that McDonald’s would do this. So they know it better than anyone what they had to give up when they shifted from beef tallow. They were throwing away the franchise. And they must have done taste tests. And they must have said, “Oh my God, we’re taking something that’s an A+ and we’re taking it down to a B-, and even though our brand and our livelihood depends on this food item, we’re going to throw it away.”

This isn’t conclusive or anything. The point is that the McDonald’s Hypothesis seems obvious at first, and then it seems way less obvious as soon as I have to compare it to the actual facts that need explaining.

The natural fallback position from the McDonald’s Hypothesis is the Something in Food Hypothesis. In this theory, it’s not that food is tastier, or more abundant, or varied, or anything like that. It’s that there’s Something in Food now that wasn’t there before, something that’s making us fatter. McDonald’s french fry oil now tastes worse, but maybe it screws with your weight through some other mechanism. Anyone who retreats from the McDonald’s Hypothesis to the Something in Food Hypothesis should notice that they’re now in the neighborhood of the theories in A Chemical Hunger that seemed so ridiculous mere moments ago.

Another common backup theory is the Couch Potato Hypothesis: people are getting fatter because they move around less. But again, why did they suddenly start doing that in 1980, and move around less every single year since then? Why was that the year of The Great Sitting Down? Why didn’t it happen in 1953 when the majority of Americans got a TV, or in 1960 when the majority of Americans got a car, or in 2000 when the majority of Americans got a computer and started using the internet, or in 2013 when the majority of Americans got smartphones? Why is it happening faster in recent years? I guess TikTok and Netflix could be improving their algorithms every year and getting you to sit still for longer, but is that really a bigger deal than getting a car or a computer in the first place? And remember, this is adult obesity we’re talking about. Did 45-year-olds move around less this year than they did last year? With even 30 seconds of reflection, the Couch Potato Hypothesis starts to seem a little ***half baked***.

A situation like this is a good test of your epistemic immune system. If you’ve never really thought about the causes of the obesity epidemic and your immediate reaction to a new explanation is “NO WAY, IMPOSSIBLE, REJECT, I ALREADY KNOW THIS ONE,” your mental t-cells are probably too active. That doesn’t mean the new explanation is right, just that it’s a little silly to scrunch up your face at it.

The solution isn’t to be more gullible. The world is full of crazy people saying crazy things; we’re right to be skeptical. In fact, the solution is to be more skeptical, and to direct a healthy dose of that skepticism toward your own thoughts, because that’s the only way to realize when your certainty-to-evidence ratio is out of whack.

Most of my beliefs are unconsidered and unsupported. I’m not ashamed of that––who’s got the time to consider and support every single thing they think? I scrutinize the few things I care about and make my best guess on the rest. Every time I see someone react to a new hypothesis like they’ve just tasted lemon juice, it’s a helpful reminder that I need to file my guesses under “Guesses” and not under “EXTREMELY CERTAIN AND WELL-KNOWN THINGS THAT I KNOW.”

~*~*~*little is known, but much is believed*~*~*~

Sincerely,
Adam

Lady Tasting Brine

A few weeks ago we spent some time sitting around tasting different alkali metal salts with Adam Mastroianni

To us, the difference between NaCl (sodium chloride, also known as normal table salt) and KCl (potassium chloride) seems very obvious, but Adam said they taste about the same to him.

Since this can be tested empirically, we ran some quick studies to learn more. Inspired by the design of R. A. Fisher’s lady tasting tea experiment, we decided to test batches of 8 samples at a time in randomized, single-blind designs. 

TFW

Study 1

For the first study, eight cups were prepared, labeled A through H. We tested four samples of ¼ tsp dry NaCl and four samples of ¼ tsp dry KCl, randomly assigned to the eight cups. Testers were always blind to what salt was in what cup, but the experimenter was not blind.

Adam started by tasting the eight cups in order, and guessing which salt was in each cup. After tasting, he guessed that his accuracy was between 4/8 and 8/8. 

In fact, Adam’s accuracy was 6/8 — he incorrectly identified Cup D as KCl when it was actually NaCl, and he incorrectly identified Cup H as NaCl when it was actually KCl. Otherwise he correctly identified which salt was in which cup (Table 1).

Following this, the eight cups were emptied, cleaned, and re-stocked with four of each NaCl and KCl again, in a new random order.

Then, one of the SMTM authors (Raccoon #3) tasted the eight cups in order, guessing which salt was in each cup. After tasting, the author estimated their accuracy was either 7/8 or 8/8. 

In fact, Raccoon #3 got 8/8 correct, always identifying KCl as KCl and NaCl as NaCl (Table 2). If Fisher were there, he would have rejected the null hypothesis. 

Study 2

The second study was a replication of the first, except that the ¼ tsps of salt were each dissolved in one cup of lukewarm water, yielding 8 cups of two different salt solutions, four of each, in a random order, single-blind.

Again, Adam went first. Adam started by tasting the eight cups in order and guessing which salt was in each cup. After tasting, he estimated that his accuracy was between 4/8 and 7/8. 

In fact, Adam’s accuracy was once again 6/8 — he incorrectly identified Cup C as NaCl when it was actually KCl, and he incorrectly identified Cup F as KCl when it was actually NaCl. Otherwise he correctly identified which salt solution was in which cup (Table 3).

At this point one of our friends, who we will identify as RG, arrived at the apartment and also wanted to try the solutions. Since she was not present while Adam was tasting, we figured she could try his brines.

RG tasted the eight cups in order, guessing which salt was in each cup, and at the end estimated that her accuracy was 3 or 4 out of 8. In reality, her accuracy was 5/8. Like Adam, she misidentified Cups C and F, and she also misidentified Cup A as NaCl instead of KCl (Table 3).

Following this, the eight cups were emptied, cleaned, and re-stocked with NaCl and KCl solution, again four of each in a new random order.

Raccoon #3 tasted the eight cups in order. They guessed that the first three cups were NaCl, but when they reached the fourth cup, they commented that they must have been wrong, that Cup D was NaCl and the first three had to have been KCl. Based on this inference, at the end this author guessed an accuracy of 5/8. 

This one is hard to score. On the one hand, as written their accuracy was indeed 5/8. However, they realized their mistake on the first three cups as soon as they reached Cup D but before being unblinded, so you could also rate their accuracy as 8/8. See Table 4 for details.

Links for January 2024

The for-profit system of academic journal publishing was created by Robert Maxwell, who also happens to be Ghislaine Maxwell’s dad. Along with other tidbits, the linked article does a good job highlighting the ways in which scientific publishing is a principal-agent problem:

You have no idea how profitable these journals are once you stop doing anything. When you’re building a journal, you spend time getting good editorial boards, you treat them well, you give them dinners. Then you market the thing and your salespeople go out there to sell subscriptions, which is slow and tough, and you try to make the journal as good as possible. … then we buy it and we stop doing all that stuff and then the cash just pours out and you wouldn’t believe how wonderful it is.

Andrew Gelman writes, “I’m curious what your readers would think of my post on Seth and his diet which I used to believe in but no more.”

Soothing Sounds for Baby

More arguments on the FDA from Maxwell Tabarrok: Contra Scott on Abolishing the FDA and Surgery Works Well Without The FDA.

Ada Palmer: Tools for Thinking About Censorship

If we believe that the purpose of the Inquisition trying Galileo was to silence Galileo, it absolutely failed, it made him much, much more famous, and they knew it would.  If you want to silence Galileo in 1600 you don’t need a trial, you just hire an assassin and you kill him, this is Renaissance Italy, the Church does this all the time.  The purpose of the Galileo trial was to scare Descartes into retracting his then-about-to-be-published synthesis, which—on hearing about the trial—he took back from the publisher and revised to be much more orthodox.  Descartes and thousands of other major thinkers of the time wrote differently, spoke differently, chose different projects, and passed different ideas on to the next century because they self-censored after the Galileo trial—an event whose burden in money and manpower for the Inquisition was minute compared to how hard it would have been for them to get at all those scientists.

How to be More Agentic

That’s some good illegalism: Activists vow to keep installing guerrilla benches at East Bay bus stops (h/t ACX)

Some potato riffs thoughts from Lee S. Pubb: Superstarch Me, Part 2

Epistemic Hell – Roger’s Bacon

Announcing the SoS Research Collective:

We (the founding gardeners Roger, Dario, and Sergey) have always conceived of Seeds of Science as a kind of research project, with the journal serving as the first of several “experiments”. You could think of our research questions as the following: 

(1) Can people outside of academia make valuable contributions if given the proper platform and support?

(2) Can we create new organizational structures that promote greater creativity and diversity of thought in science?

Nearly 2.5 years after we “planted” our first seed of science, we have some preliminary answers. 

(1) Yes.

(2) Yes.

More stove innovation: Our First Step Towards the Home of the Future

Argument: You Don’t Need Health Insurance

Claims: “The theory of natural selection was first laid out before Darwin by a shipbuilder worried that logging was selecting for scrubby and crooked trees (as apparently happened in China?)”